Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Weather Update: Wednesday Evening

9:15pm Update:  The severe weather threat has ended for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as all watches and warnings have been allowed to expire.  Now we focus our attention to the expected wind later tonight and Thursday.

Surface low pressure is currently located in northeast Iowa.  This low will lift northeast into Wisconsin as that's where the greatest pressure falls are located.  The image on the left is a 3hr pressure change map and shows us where the greatest pressure falls and pressure rises are occurring.

Low pressure will track to the area where the lowest pressure is occurring.  That's why this low will move northeast into Wisconsin.  Behind the low pressure system, pressure is quickly rising.  This is why the wind will greatly increase tonight and Thursday.

As it pulls to the northeast, our winds will remain from the south and then shift around to the southwest overnight, with increasing gusts to 35 mph.  There is snow currently falling in western Iowa, but that will also track northeast with the low by Thursday morning, and isn't expected to last.

By Thursday morning, winds will be gusting close to 40 mph under mostly cloudy skies.









(10:40:28 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Genoa [Dekalb Co, IL] public reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 08:10 PM CST -- powerlines down onto a tree. occurred well ahead of approaching line of storms. report relayed via facebook.

(9:29:32 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports NON-TSTM WND DMG at 07:40 PM CST -- large tree branch down in yard of home on 42nd street. occurred well ahead...about 10 minutes before storms hit area. report relayed via social media.


(8:49:20 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Menominee [Jo Daviess Co, IL] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:35 PM CST -- a barn was thrown onto the road and multiple homes were damaged. one home had the roof blown off and resucues were performed. no injuries but a lot of structural damage in the area.

(8:50:27 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Warren [Jo Daviess Co, IL] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:10 PM CST -- lots of trees and powerlines down in the warren area.

(8:31:04 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 S Janesville [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:37 PM CST -- tree down south of janesville...just east of interstate.

(8:31:04 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 W Orfordville [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 07:56 PM CST -- tree down south of highway 11...west of orfordville.

(8:31:04 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 1 SE Footville [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 08:10 PM CST -- tree down just southeast of footville.


(8:16:02 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 4 NW Janesville Airport [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of E50 MPH at 08:04 PM CST -- small branches blown around. from skywarn spotter

8:00pm Update:  Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties has been allowed to expire.  Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues for eastern portion of Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties until 8:30pm.

7:51pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning canceled for Stephenson County.




New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for DeKalb County until 8:30pm and Green and Rock counties in southern Wisconsin until 8:15pm.






Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle, Lee and Winnebago counties until 8pm. 
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties until 8pm. 
Line of thunderstorms currently moving through NW Illinois are moving to the northeast around 70 mph.  Wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible ahead of this line.  With how fast the line is moving, this will not allow you much time to react.  Remember to remain indoors and away from windows until this storm passes.



Separate line of thunderstorms out ahead of the main line located along the Mississippi River. This line moving through Rockford now. Winds gusted over 40mph at the airport, and pea size hail has been reported as well in Winnebago County. This line of storms is moving northeastward upwards of 70mph. So, there won't be much time to react before these storms arrive.



A Tornado Watch has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties until 9pm, while a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Green, Rock, Walworth, Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, McHenry, Lee and DeKalb counties until 11pm

Strong thunderstorms are set to cross over the Mississippi River this evening.  While the overall line has shown a slight weakening trend, there remains enough wind shear in the atmosphere to hold on to damaging winds gusts as this line comes through.   In fact, Dubuque just reported a 65 mph wind gust with the current storm overhead. 

Non-thunderstorm winds are already increasing from the southeast, so that combined with any strong thunderstorm could produce wind gusts near 70 mph this evening.


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