Whether you're planning on heading out by plane or car, you will run into weather-related travel issues this Christmas week.
The first arrives Monday morning. Low pressure will quickly strengthen and lift into northeast Iowa (near Galena) by Monday morning. Strong south winds will draw moisture northward into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Sunday night. It will be rain, not snow, that could slow you down on the roads Monday morning. Light drizzle may continue into Monday afternoon, but the heaviest rain will have ended. It is possible that as temperatures slowly trend down closer to freezing Monday night, drizzle or even light freezing drizzle could fall.
By Tuesday the skies will dry across the Midwest and Great Lakes as rain spreads east and southeast through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Colder air settling into the west will cause snow to fall throughout the higher elevations of the Rockies with rain along the west coast. This is the developing system that will bring us our biggest headaches locally Wednesday.
Wednesday will be a wet, and potentially stormy, day in the Midwest. Strong low pressure will lift northeast from the Desert Southwest. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be in full force, but so will the warmth. Record highs are possible Wednesday afternoon. Strong south winds ahead of the low will push temperatures in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin into the 50's, with the 60's not that far away. At the same time, strong lift in the atmosphere and the placement of the surface low could allow for thunderstorms to develop along the Mississippi River Valley. Rain becomes more widespread during the afternoon and evening with locally one inch, or more, totals possible. So whether you're planning on traveling by air or road, plan for a few delays.
A strong cold front will move through Wednesday evening and depending on how fast the cold air arrives, there could be a mix or brief transition to snow Wednesday night.
Christmas Eve day will be slightly cooler, but still above average. Drier air following Wednesday night's cold front will allow for a little sun to shine through, but skies will turn mostly cloudy later in the day. Rain will spread closer to the East coast while the snow continues to fall out west. Highest travel impacts will likely be felt out west and in the Mid-Atlantic.
By Christmas, another low will develop in the southwest and begin to lift northeast through the Plains. A warm front will be pulled northward through Illinois late Friday night. The day should be dry, but there is a chance for precipitation to move back in by Friday evening/night. Temperatures Friday night are expected to remain above freezing, but if we hold closer to the freezing point (32 degrees), then there is a small chance for a light mix into Saturday morning.
By the weekend, models are beginning to develop another storm system that will likely bring precipitation to the Great Lakes and Midwest. However, those same models disagree as to whether that precipitation will fall as snow, rain or a mixture. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you're traveling over the weekend.
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