Three years ago today on December 3, 2012, Rockford recorded the warmest temperature it has ever seen in the month of December. That day, temperatures climbed to 69°. In DeKalb, temperatures reached 70°. Temperatures in the 60's and 70's this late in the year are extremely uncommon. In order to get warmth of that magnitude, you have to have a perfect set up with southwesterly winds and high pressure situated off to the east of the region, among other things.
We are expecting a warming trend over the next few days across the Stateline with high pressure situated off to the east, but we won't be anywhere near the 60's...yet. Middle 40's are in store for Friday with upper 40's to near 50° possible on Saturday with abundant sunshine. We will maintain those above average temperatures to round out the weekend, and throughout next week.
The reasoning behind that warmer air moving into the area is the high pressure that will be located to the east, the warmer southwest winds, and the jet stream retreating well to the north into Canada, allowing the mild air to pump northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern is nearly identical to what we saw three years ago when those record highs were achieved, except on a lesser magnitude.
However, looking ahead to next weekend, the two long-range forecast models we look at are suggesting temperatures touching the 60's--perhaps even the middle 60's--for a day or so. While that is still over a week out, it is something worth noting because it is not often that both models agree so well on temperature trends that far out into the future.
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