Saturday, May 20, 2017

Temperature Fluctuations - but We End Warm

We haven't exactly started the weekend the way that we wanted to, but at least our severe weather risk has been dropped.  The areas of stronger convection have shifted to the south, where there are areas of higher dew points and stronger instability.  Also, winds are pulling to the northeast, which means that the storms that form in southern Indiana and western Kentucky will track northeast and not move through our area.  However, we can't rule out lingering rain and a few rumbles of thunder yet as a cold front will move through our area.  Substantial moisture has been moving through our area today, which is why we saw the light rain earlier today.  With this lingering moisture the incoming front can lift it and create more showers, but it won't be strong enough to sustain any thunderstorms.  Thus, only a few rumbles of thunder are possible instead of a full-blown thunderstorms.  The rain/thunder chance will cease between 10-11pm.

As we head into the end of the weekend that cold front will cool our temperatures into the upper 50°s for Sunday and we'll hang on to the cloud cover.  However, once we get into Monday, a high pressure system will form out in the plains and track east.  It'll stay south of us while it tracks east, but this will allow it to pull in warm and dry air from the southwest.  This will clear our skies for Monday, and also warm our temperatures back up into the low 70°s, so we're looking to have a great start to the work week.  The only thing is that we cool down again after that.  Why will the temperatures fluctuate so much?  An upper level trough will tilt, leading to another high pressure development, this time over the Rockies.  The high, combined with the low that brought the rain today that'll stay up north, will channel cooler air into our area and bring down our temperatures into the low 60°s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll see some light rain to start the afternoon on Tuesday, but after that the weather stays quiet for the rest of the week.  We'll hang on to the clouds through Wednesday, but more sunshine will be seen by Thursday and the end of the week.  Another low will form out in the plains by next Thursday, which will help to warm our temperatures into the mid to upper 70°s to close out the week.

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