Friday, November 23, 2018

Winter Storm Watches Already Issued for Sunday

A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for Carroll and Whiteside counties in northwest Illinois beginning Sunday morning.  Those watches extend westward through Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas.

The storm system expected to move in Sunday is still off shore and just south of the Gulf of Alaska Friday morning.  Latest forecast models shifted the track of the surface low south, taking
it more through central and southern Missouri Saturday, and southern Illinois Sunday afternoon.  The southward shift would suggest that the heaviest axis of snow would occur over parts of northwest and northern Illinois, central Illinois, Iowa and Missouri, where over four inches of snow would be possible.  However it was just Thursday afternoon that models had the low further north, so there are noticeable differences with the overall track, which will ultimately have an impact on overall snowfall amount and precipitation type locally.

Because the main upper level portion of the storm system is still well off shore, there isn't an ample sampling of atmospheric data.  This is causing shifts in the overall storm track, precipitation type and snowfall intensity.  It's likely that additional shifts will occur as we get closer to Sunday, which may pull the surface low further north.  However, wherever the snow falls it'll be a heavy, wet snow with temperatures in the 30's.  Snowfall totals to, and over, four inches are likely by Sunday night.  Winds are also expected to increase through Sunday and this could cause low visibility, power outages and downed power lines across parts of the Midwest.  Anyone with travel plans Sunday will need to pay close attention to the forecast, or consider changing those plans to an earlier/later date.  Impacts to Monday morning's commute are also possible as many head back to work.  Updated forecasts will continue through this weekend as we get closer to Sunday!

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