Little change in ongoing dry conditions

 

The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows very little change for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with the ongoing dry/drought conditions last week.

While some improvements were noted in downstate Illinois, there wasn't much change in both the 'abnormally dry' and 'moderate drought' categories for both southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. It looks like we'll end the month of September with almost an inch and a half deficit, despite some of the heavier rainfall that occurred early last week.

Longer range outlooks into the middle of October are a bit concerning as it is showing a higher probability for below average precipitation for not only the Stateline, but a good portion of the country. While we'll see a few cold fronts pass through this week most of them will come through the dry. The first arrives late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

A slight increase in moisture ahead of the front may allow for a few spotty sprinkles or very light showers to occur, but nothing that would be enough to really measure by sunrise Tuesday. The second front comes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Again, this will have a little moisture associated with it but rain chances - at this point - will remain capped within the 20-30 percent range.

The overall pattern into the month of October is favoring a higher probability for above average temperatures, according to the latest outlooks from the Climate Predication Center. This pattern has a lot to do with the lack of colder air moving in from the north. The jet stream pattern over the next week or so is favoring more of an air mass from the Pacific, rather than from Canada or the Arctic. This means that as a series of cold fronts move through this week, we will feel a drop in temperatures but that drop will only bring us closer to where we should be for the beginning of October - middle to upper 60s. And even after those dips we will warm right back up to temperatures that are above average. This type of pattern looks to hold through at least the middle of the month.

  

Winds increase Tuesday following cold front

 

Northwest winds will increase following a cold front early Tuesday with gusts reaching 30-35 mph during the first half of the day. It'll also bring temperatures down from the low 80s they reached Monday afternoon, down into the upper 60s Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure will gradually move in from the west allowing wind speeds to calm through the afternoon and evening. This will bring temperatures down into the low 40s, perhaps upper 30s in some outlying areas, for the start of Wednesday. You may also notice a little more haze/smoke to Tuesday's sunrise as the front pulls in smoke aloft from the fires out west and northwest. Once the front passes the haze should clear Tuesday afternoon and evening.

But as winds quickly turn back around to the southwest Wednesday afternoon temperatures will warm right back into the low to mid 70s. The warming will continue into Thursday ahead of another cold front Friday morning. This, too, could bring a slight chance for some precipitation into Friday morning.  

Brief cool down to follow Tuesday's cold front

Fortunately, all the Stateline saw from the remnants of category 4 hurricane Helene was cloud cover. High temperatures warmed nicely both Saturday and Sunday landing in the low 80s. 

Skies cleared out as we approached sunset, allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 50s. The work week kicks off with plenty of sun, though a few clouds will pop up for the afternoon.

Ahead of our next cold front, winds will be out of the southeast, allowing highs to climb a degree or two higher from this past weekend. Expect highs in the low 80s. The next trough will bring previously mentioned cold front in late in the night tonight which will bring a brief shot of cooler air. Rain chances along the front are extremely limited, but a few spots may see a very isolated shower.

  

The bigger headline again with Tuesday's frontal passage is the cooler air that follows. Afternoon highs will drop from well above-average today to seasonable levels Tuesday, landing short of the 70° mark. Sunshine continues, though an organized wind out of the northwest will develop. At times, winds could gust up to 25 mph. This cool down will be brief, lingering into Tuesday night. A few locales may end up in the upper 30s Wednesday. Highs are then set to return to the 70s Wednesday, remaining in the 70s into the weekend.

 

More unseasonable warmth for most of this week

 It was an unusually warm day in the Stateline with highs once again in the low 80s for many, including a high of 81 in Rockford. This is more than 10 degrees above our average high of 70° for today's date. It was still a bit breezy as the remnants from Helene continue to pull away, but winds were weaker than they were Friday or Saturday.

Northeast winds will continue to lighten up a bit into the night and tomorrow, promoting some patchy fog overnight. A slight shift to a more Southerly direction in winds will once again allow many spots to warm into the 80s on Monday despite a bit more cloud cover.

This comes between the outgoing energy from the remnants of Helene to the Southeast and our next weather system to the Northwest. The next trough will bring a surface cold front Monday night which will bring a brief shot of cooler air. Rain chances along the front after midnight Tuesday look very limited, but a few spots may see a very isolated shower.

The bigger story will be the cooldown. Temperatures Tuesday will be more than 10 degrees cooler than the day before thanks to that front and persistent Northwest winds during the afternoon. Highs will struggle to reach 70° for many on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will downright chilly as high pressure takes over. With very dry air aloft and at the surface, we will drop down into the low 40s and even upper 30s Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

But the upper-level flow will correct itself and straighten out into a more zonal pattern. This means upper-level flow will be directly West to East with few waves in between. This will lead to a period of dry and quiet weather heading into the middle of next week.

Temperatures will only be near or below average on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rest of the week featuring more unseasonable warmth. Highs Thursday may touch close to 80° again before another weather system may begin to slowly cool us down into next weekend. Rain chances look very limited for the next week-plus, adding onto our rainfall deficit from earlier this summer.

Mid-week cool down as dry weather continues

 Temperatures will continue to gradually fall into the night underneath the recent cloud cover that has filtered in through Saturday evening. We clear back out again overnight with mostly clear skies by early morning. Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 50s as a result. Winds will remain breezy from the North Northeast, gusting to 20-25 mph overnight.

But we warm back up again tomorrow to the upper 70s and low 80s despite the persistent NE breeze. Similar to Saturday, clouds will be thickest South and East of Rockford, slightly limiting high temperatures there. Locations Northwest of Rockford may push 80°.

Monday will bring warm but otherwise uneventful weather with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 80s for most. Our next focus turns to an incoming cold front late Monday evening into the night, bringing a very slim chance for a shower or two along it. Most likely remain dry with limited moisture to work with.

Behind this front, drier air will filter in with incoming high pressure from Canada. Dew points will drop into the 30s and 40s, dry even for this time of year. The dry air will allow for very pleasant afternoons and chilly nights mid-week.

Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be closer to average for this time of year with highs near 70°. Plentiful sunshine amid the high pressure will be the story, but Tuesday may be a touch breezy behind the front Monday night. Tuesday night will be downright chilly with lows reaching the low 40s across the board and some spots could even dip into the upper 30s. Wednesday night will be a bit warmer as our next warm-up is on the way into the end of the week.

The chilly nights ahead may make you think of fall, and I have noticed some trees are beginning to turn colors. This map from www.explorefall.com shows some spots are beginning to see low color, with only areas well to our North seeing moderate color yet. Average peak color in the Stateline is mid to late-October.

Hurricane Helene's remnants to impact the state line this weekend

 Since landfall Hurricane Helene has made quite a name for itself, as it's impacted much of the Southeast and Appalachian areas over the late week. In its wake it's brought incredible storm surge, tornadoes, high winds, and record rainfall to many locations causing millions and possibly billions of dollars' worth of damage by the time it is all said and done. Although it's not as strong as it once was, Hurricane Helene's post tropical remnants will be felt here along the state line the next few days.

Taking a broad look at the cyclone it's pretty easy to see where it exactly is right now, with it centered over Kentucky and Indiana, Helene's remnants are expected to stall and weaken through the weekend. But with increased moisture and a high-pressure gradient at the surface this will increase cloud cover and winds for much of the state line.

Starting with wind gusts, it's important to understand how the pressure gradient at the surface impacts wind speeds. Wind most often moves from higher to lower pressure and when areas of lower pressure are tightly packed together this causes the wind to really want to move towards the lower pressure. Within Hurricane's or remnants areas of lower pressure are often very compact which often causes the very high wind speeds.

So, with Helene's remnants just to our south our pressure gradient will be quite high pointing to the south so we will be feeling strong Northeasterly wind for much of the weekend.

Throughout Saturday, winds will be consistent from Northeast anywhere from 10-20 mph with some gusts getting to 25 mph and possibly even higher. This will persist into Sunday where gusts may not be as strong, but expect winds of once again 10-20 mph with some gusts getting close to 25 mph. This will be the first "fall wind" feel although it really isn't related to fall like weather at all.

As well as wind cloud cover from Helene's remnants complicates the forecast for the state line. With higher moisture to our Southeast closer to the center of the low cloud cover will be much thicker with rain chances higher as well. Moisture to the eat will be concentrated more near the surface helping fuel precipitation chances while we'll remain mostly dry.

This will begin to break up Sunday but as of now Saturday's temperatures will be highly influenced on just how much cloud cover, we get from these remnants. With a tight gradient of moisture set up just along the state line, some areas may be under a heavy deck of clouds while some may not see clouds at all! Areas with no clouds today will most likely be just a bit warmer in terms of temperatures.

Throughout the weekend though, we will stay in the upper 70's with breezy conditions continuing. We will stay dry through the time as well with the highest precipitation chances staying to the south and east mainly along the I-80 corridor. But expect at least partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies through the weekend!

 

 

Lingering impacts from Helene into the weekend

 The wide precipitation field off the remnants of Hurricane Helene continue into late Friday evening across the Ohio River Valley and into the Southeast. This comes as the remnant tropical cyclone gets swept into an upper level low now centered near Kentucky. Drier air to the North and West has kept us dry in the Stateline and will continue to do so for many through the weekend.

One impact from Helene was our breezy winds. This came as a strong pressure gradient between the high pressure to our North and the strong remnant low pressure to the South. Northeast winds cycled around the low pressure, producing gusts upwards of 50-60 mph across portions of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky Friday afternoon. Locally, we only saw peak wind gusts reach just above 30 mph.

Cloud cover will remain in place through the night as the spiraling moisture around the low pressure to the South fights with dry air from the high pressure to our North. This will only allow temperatures to drop to around 60° overnight.

A narrow band of showers may develop Southeast of Rockford Saturday morning into the afternoon, but highest chances for any rain to fall will remain closer to a line from Chicago down to Peoria. A continued dry forecast can be expected Northwest of Rockford.

 

Winds will ease a bit over Saturday and Sunday, with gusts down to 20-25 mph. This will also come with a slight decrease in cloud cover, with some seeing more sunshine each day following. Temperatures will remain above average, with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s. Next week, we will see a brief cool down with a strong cold front Tuesday morning leading to highs in the 60s and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. But the cool down will not last long as highs are back into the mid and upper 70s by the end of the week.

Windy Friday on tap thanks to Helene's remnants

Category 4 hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida Thursday evening. Helene's remnants are set to slingshot towards the region, bringing slight changes in our weather pattern for Friday and also for the weekend. 

Those changes are filtering in as we wake up this morning in the form of far-reaching high clouds. Expect there to be a lot more cloud cover, leaving skies mostly cloudy throughout the day. That, along with a rather gusty wind out of the northeast will leave afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Peak winds could range from 25-35 mph, with conditions staying breezy overnight and for week 4 of high school football this evening.

Saturday, skies will clear for some, especially those in northwestern Illinois. Those south and southeast of the Rockford area will remain under a blanket of clouds and also have a slightly higher shot for a few isolated showers. Temperatures are likely to peak in a similar territory to today in the upper 70s. Some more clearing can be expected on Sunday as Helene's cloud deck slowly drifts away from us. Highs stay in the upper 70s, close to 80° into early next week, though an approaching cold front will further cool temperatures down into October.

Helene striking Florida as major hurricane

 As of 5:20PM CDT on Thursday, Hurricane Helene is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds up to 130 mph. Minimum central pressure is now down to 947 mb, signs of continued strengthening before it will make landfall later this evening as a very dangerous storm.

One of the reasons Helene is so dangerous is due to how large the storm is. Tropical storm force winds cover nearly all of Florida, while a pocket of hurricane force winds will be approaching Tallahassee, FL later tonight.

The large diameter of the storm will only make the storm surge worse, with a portion of the FL coastline within the Big Bend currently forecast to see upwards of 12-15 feet of surge, according to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center. This is extremely dangerous storm surge, as it could reach up to the second story of buildings in some spots.

Storm surge is already making its way inland well outside the center line of the hurricane's track, given the large diameter of the storm. This is a look from near Tampa Bay, FL just before 6PM Thursday showing some of the storm surge reaching inland.

Another significant impact from Helene will be the very heavy rainfall even well inland. The Weather Prediction Center has placed many areas between the FL Panhandle up to Western portions of North Carolina underneath a HIGH risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight. Some spots within that region could see nearly 5-10" of rainfall. This is going to be especially hazardous in the mountainous regions there, causing potential landslides and significant flooding to areas that rarely see this much rain.

 

Locally across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, we will stay mostly dry with high pressure keeping much of the rain well to our South. Central and Southern Illinois may see an inch or two of rain, but we may only see a few spotty showers Saturday and Sunday. Winds will be our biggest concern, with gusts up to 30 mph Friday afternoon and near 20 mph Saturday into Sunday.

Sunny skies prevail Thursday afternoon ahead of increasing cloud cover Friday

 

Temperatures warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s Thursday afternoon, with Rockford's high reaching 80 degrees. This was the 16th time that the high temperature has reached 80 degrees, or higher, for Rockford this month. High pressure remains in control across the Midwest and Great Lakes and will continue to do so through the weekend.

Cloud cover will gradually increase through the night, leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday. Afternoon temperatures will still warm into the mid and upper 70s as east winds increase, gusting 30-35 mph throughout the afternoon and evening.

As Hurricane Helene makes landfall Thursday evening, now as a Category 4 hurricane, it'll maintain quite a bit of strength as it moves further inland tonight and Friday. The result will be increasing winds across much of the Ohio River Valley, Midwest, and southern Great Lakes.

Wind speeds will decrease some through the night Friday but remain breezy Saturday and Sunday. Wind speeds of 25 mph can be expected Saturday with 20 mph winds Sunday.

  

Warm and sunny weather to continue

High pressure sliding in helped trade in the rainy, gloomy, and cool weather pattern from earlier in the week to a more sunny and warmer one. 

That was the case yesterday and that will continue to be the case for the rest of the work week. Thursday does begin with some patchy fog. Thankfully, the fog this morning won't be as dense as what we woke up to Wednesday morning. Expect plenty of sun to follow with highs ending up near the 80° mark.

Temperatures remain near 80° for Friday, though there will be more clouds filling out skies thanks to the leftovers of Hurricane Helene. Right now, Helene is sitting just shy of Category 2 status as she tracks northeastward towards western Florida. 

 

 

Rain from Helene will likely stays to our south which is good news for those attending World War II Days over at Midway Village. If anything, we'll see mostly cloudy skies, breezy conditions, and a slim chance for isolated showers. Not a washout by any means. Highs will stay in the mid to upper 70s. I do think we will have a slightly higher chance for showers with our next cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Highs following the frontal passage will drop into the upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
 

How Hurricane Helene could impact weather in the Stateline

 Hurricane Helene is set to become a very dangerous category 4 storm as it approaches the Florida coast Thursday afternoon and evening, according to latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. As of 5PM Wednesday, the storm is a category 1 hurricane with sustained winds up to 85 mph.

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings cover almost the entire coastline of Florida, even though the forecast cone is very narrow between Panama City and Tallahassee. Why is this the case? The cone is merely the uncertainty between which forecasters believe the center of the storm will pass. It is very important to note that the storm is much, much larger than the cone and tropical storm or hurricane impacts will be felt well beyond the center line of the storm.

Helene may produce tropical storm force winds well inland toward Georgia and South Carolina as it gets pulled into a parent cutoff low developing in the lower Ohio River Valley. This will wrap the moisture from the tropical system into the parent low and northward our direction closer to the weekend. How much of that moisture reaches us in the Stateline is still in question, with lots of dry air to the North limiting just how far the abundant tropical moisture lifts.

Clouds blowing off the remnant tropical system will arrive starting Thursday night, keeping overnight lows a bit warmer compared to Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Our best chances for any rain from the tropical system would arrive Saturday into Sunday, with only slim chances this far North. Portions of Southern Illinois may see multiple inches of rainfall, so it goes to show how drastic the cutoff from very heavy rainfall to the South to almost nothing North.