The remnants of hurricane Francine are still producing heavy rain across the Southeastern/Gulf Coast regions with expansive cloud cover flowing out ahead of it even into Central Illinois. As the remnants inch closer to the Stateline, cloud cover will thicken up locally especially in the upper levels. As a result, temperatures will only fall to the low 60s this time around, a touch warmer than the last few nights.
Our chances for rain also creep up over the weekend as the moisture off the residual low pressure from Francine's remnants. Widespread rain appears unlikely this far North, as a blocking high pressure to the Northeast will prevent widespread moisture from reaching us. Scattered showers at best will be the story up here, with the best chances for those South and West of Rockford. Temperatures will remain warm this weekend despite the chances for rain, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s.
At best, some spots may pick up around 0.5" of rainfall between the scattered chances Saturday and Sunday. At worst, some may see nothing at all. Again, better chances for meaningful rain appears to be mainly to the West and well South.
The rainfall is needed as we have been in a dry stretch as of late. So far, September has only seen a trace amount of rainfall at the Rockford airport, more than 1.5" short from the average. Additionally, the last measurable rain (over 0.01") was August 29th, nearly 2 weeks ago. Already so far this is within the top 10 driest starts to September and has the potential to remain dry for longer into the month.
The latest drought monitor from https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ shows much of the Stateline now within abnormally dry conditions. While not technically drought conditions, it does signify the growing gap in our rainfall deficit over the Stateline. The next drought monitor will come out next Thursday morning.
Our rainfall gap may not be aided much by the upcoming pattern. Few rain chances are featured through much of next week. Aside from the weekend, we may see more moisture by mid-next week, but even that doesn't look to provide much widespread rain again. Long term, there is very high confidence in above average temperatures and neutral confidence in above average or below average precipitation between the 18th-22nd. If we don't see much rain over this weekend, the warm and dry stretch may only exasperate our rainfall deficit and approaching drought conditions.
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