The cold front that passed through Sunday will stall to our southeast and east today. An area of low pressure will begin to develop out west and start to lift the front back north as a warm front later this evening and overnight. As it does the low level jet, winds a couple thousand feet above the ground, will increase helping to transport gulf moisture northward. This will cause showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to develop later tonight...likely after 10pm...and continue into Tuesday morning. After the first round of weather moves north the focus will then shift towards the afternoon on Tuesday and just how much daytime heating we will be able to accomplish as the warm front continues to lift into north-central Illinois.
As of Monday morning, it appears the greatest threat for significant severe weather will reside to the southwest of the immediate forecast area. This is the region that will likely see the greatest moisture return and clearing during the afternoon. It will also sit near the 'triple-point', an area outlined by the warm front, cold front and low pressure. Typically this is where the greatest wind shear is found to support big storms. However, if the front does lift further to the north the greatest severe threat would be shifted north as well. If the warm front were to remain to the south any storms that would move north across it would become elevated with hail and heavy rainfall remaining the primary threat.
Just like on Sunday heavy rainfall will once again be a concern as areas that saw over an inch of rainfall could potentially see that again Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor the progression of this system and keep you updated right here! And while we'll be dealing with the rainfall, further north across the northern Plains and into the upper Great Lakes Winter Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued as some could see six inches of heavy, wet snow. That should be fun!
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