6:00pm Update: Strong storms continue to develop west of Des Moines this evening right along the warm front and to the east of the surface low. Winds changing with height have allowed individual storms to develop and rotate producing numerous tornado warnings. This was the area that saw clearing earlier this afternoon allowing for that destabilization.
Closer to home a few heavier showers can be found stretching from southeast of the Rockford Metro up through Loves Park and Machesney Park and into Janesville. These will continue through the evening. We'll have to watch how well the storms out west hold together and if they form into a line of storms later tonight as they move northeast.
Noon Update: Skies remain cloudy as of the noon hour with temperatures sitting in the low to mid 40s. Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon. The warm front remains to our south through central Illinois and the area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move northeast into northwest Iowa later this afternoon. Clearing has already been noted across northwest Missouri with the associated dry-slot and this will likely be the focus for thunderstorms to initiate later this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms will increase in nature as the warm front continues to pull north, likely around the 5pm hour. The greatest threat for any type of significant severe weather will continue to remain around the low centered in southern Iowa, however, we're still looking at the potential for hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall with any storms should they develop. We're still going to watch the movement of the warm front as wind shear may be enough to get a few rotating storms right along the front. This may impact our far southern counties. The storm chances will continue through the overnight as the low pulls closer with hail and gusty winds. We'll have another update for you coming later this afternoon.
8:00 am Update: A big temperature contrast will likely be found from north to south later this afternoon as a warm front slides closer to the Stateline. Temperatures on the north side of the front will likely remain in the 40s while south the 60s, and even 70s, could be possible.
We are still under the slight risk for stronger storms later this afternoon with hail being the primary threat across the western Great Lakes. We dealt with a few showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms earlier this morning but those have since pushed off to the east and northeast.
The warm front currently sits through central Illinois this morning and will try to advance northward as the day progresses. This will be in response to an area of low pressure that will continue to gain strength and move in northwest Iowa later this afternoon. There are a couple things we'll be watching fairly closely throughout the day in terms of our severe potential. One will be if we can clear out from under the chilly, cloudy skies. If we are able to clear some later this morning that will help draw the warm front closer which would likely bring an increase in the stronger storms. If we don't, then our severe potential would go down. There is a dry-slot (dry air moving in the mid-levels of the atmosphere) beginning to develop across southwest Iowa which will likely clear skies through southern Iowa and west-central Illinois. This could even move further north into northern Illinois.
The main concern for us with the storms will likely be hail and heavy rainfall as the storms would become elevated the further north they moved. The highest risk for severe weather, including damaging winds and tornadoes, will remain south of the front through south-central Iowa. Better moisture return there combined with an increase in wind shear will help promote a few stronger storms later this afternoon. We'll continue to montior trends through this morning and afternoon and likely have an update for you around noon or 1pm.
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