Severe storms in the Midwest - Storms here late today

3:15pm Update:  A Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watch have been issued for Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Clouds are beginning to thin across Illinois this afternoon, but the main forcing in the atmosphere remains closer tied to low pressure in northwest Iowa and near the surface warm front.  Storms forming in Iowa will move more north into Minnesota and Wisconsin later this afternoon, while thunderstorms moving out of Missouri will track into central, and possibly northern Illinois, this evening.  The threat for stronger storms will remain, however, after 6pm/7pm tonight with damaging winds and hail remaining the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under a slight risk for severe storms.



 Previous discussion:



Showers will continue to lift north out of Missouri and west-central Illinois over the next couple of hours making it into northern Illinois around Noon or a little after.  Meanwhile, all eyes will be watching to the west later today (area highlighted in red)
 as thunderstorms begin to build near the Iowa/Nebraska border northward into Minnesota.  These will be forming ahead of low pressure and near a stationary/warm front. 

The threat for significant thunderstorms will be likely from Des Moines, IA northward through Ames, IA and into Austin, MN and Mankato, MN.  There, a moderate risk for severe weather has been issued.  Anything from hail, damaging
winds and tornadoes will be possible.  Closer to home, the cloud cover we have in place and incoming showers will limit our instability to some degree.  Even though we'll likely see scattered light rain, the chance of storms developing really won't occur until supper time.  There could be an isolated storm for counties near the Mississippi River between 2pm and 4pm, but with the lack of any real forcing in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin until late, storms will be hard to come by.

As a cold front moves from western Iowa into western Illinois late this evening, the storm threat will shift east as well.  We'll be losing some of the daytime heating, but any remaining energy left in the atmosphere will help storms sustain themselves into a squall line overnight.   This will keep the threat for hail and damaging winds through roughly 11pm.  Overnight, the storm threat will shift further east towards Chicago and Indiana.  Stay up-to-date with the latest weather right here on the blog, as well as through Facebook and Twitter.