It'll almost feel like two different seasons when comparing last week to this week. Temperatures will be in the middle 60's Tuesday with a good shot of us climbing into the 80's Wednesday and Thursday. With that, however, will come the threat for thunderstorms beginning as early as Tuesday night.
Still with an east wind Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will reach the middle 60's under partly cloudy skies. A warm front in southern Illinois will pull north through central Illinois later tonight. As it does, strong winds roughly 3,000ft to 5,000ft above the surface of the earth will transport a little more moisture into the Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are likely north of the front from Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and even northern Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday morning. While the severe threat will stay relatively low, a few thunderstorms could produce hail.
Ongoing storms will be likely Wednesday morning moving into Wisconsin as temperatures rise behind the warm front. If we clear out early enough and the front doesn't stall, temperatures Wednesday afternoon could rise into the low 80's! Warmer air above will act as a lid on the atmosphere to keep the majority of thunderstorms at bay Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, that lid will slowly move away with the storm threat increasing, especially west, as a cold front moves through Iowa and into western Illinois. While the greatest severe weather threat appears to be just west of the mighty Mississippi, we're not completely out of the woods for a few stronger storms.
Not only will the temperature be on the rise Wednesday and Thursday, but the dew point will rise as well. Dew point is a measure of how much moisture there is the atmosphere. The lower the dew point number, the less moisture is present in the atmosphere. The higher the dew point number, the more moisture is present in the atmosphere. Moisture is a key ingredient not only for thunderstorms, but also for how it feels outside. Dew points are expected to rise late Wednesday and Thursday into the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. When dew points begin to reach the 60 degree mark, that's when you start to notice it feeling a little more 'muggy' outside. It'll be nothing like middle of July humidity, but you'll notice a difference - especially if temperatures reach the low 80's.
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