Strong Mother's Day Storms Likely

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely across the Midwest with the greatest threat out west from Des Moines southwest towards Omaha, Lincoln and Wichita.  There, storms producing damaging winds, large hail and long tracking tornadoes will be possible. 

Closer to home, there remains the potential for strong storms during Sunday afternoon and evening along a warm front that will slowly be lifting north through Illinois.  Storms that formed in Iowa earlier Saturday evening have, for the most part, weakened as they moved further east away from the better instability.  Strong storms continue to bare down on southern Illinois and that's where the greatest potential will be through tonight.  There are some models suggesting a few showers/storms by Sunday morning along and south of I-80, but those shouldn't be a threat for us.

Low pressure developing in the central Plains will pull a warm front through by Sunday night.  The placement of the front will be the main driver in where strong and severe storms set up through Illinois Sunday afternoon.  Right now, it appears as if the front will sit just to the south of Rockford during the afternoon and then lift into Wisconsin by Sunday night.  Storms that do form will be capable of hail and damaging winds.  While the tornado threat will be low, it won't be completely zero.  Storms that form near the warm front will have the possibility to rotate with just enough instability in place.  Timing for any storms looks to be sometime roughly after 2pm or 3pm, at the earliest, and continuing into the evening.

Severe weather isn't set in stone Sunday, but it's important to remain 'weather aware'.  Both myself and Brandon Arnold will be tracking the storm potential during the afternoon and will provide updates through the day Sunday.