Heavy rain threat increasing - Severe potential as well

The threat for heavy rain will be increasing over the coming days across the Midwest with thunderstorms expected through the start of the weekend.

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled north Thursday and Thursday night as low pressure shifts northeast out of the Plains.  The cold front that passed Wednesday afternoon will be pulled back north as a warm front during the day.  Instability will build south of the front across central Illinois and southern Iowa.  If the warm front can make it through northern Illinois by the afternoon, the severe threat will go up.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin highlighted for a slight risk for severe weather during the afternoon. 

Another growing concern in the coming days is the potential for heavy rain.  The heaviest rain through Friday night will fall just northwest of Illinois, in Iowa and Wisconsin, north of the center of the surface low. 

However, beginning late in the weekend and through next week, high pressure will build in the southeast part of the U.S.  This will keep a continuous flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest.  Depending on where exactly the outer part of the ridge is placed, we could see the potential for flooding rains increase through the middle part of next week.  Late June and July is when we typically experience the flooding rain threat increase in the Stateline.