Thursday, July 16, 2015

El Niño Latest Outlook

Courtesy: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
The latest outlook regarding the El Niño has been released from NOAA! For those who don't know what El Niño is, it's an observed global weather event in the southern Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. Above average water temperatures in this region indicate the presence of El Niño.

So how does water temperature affect the weather here in the United States? Well, for starters it can influence our precipitation and temperatures. The best known effects of El Niño were seen during the Winter of 1997-1998. This winter was the second warmest and seventh wettest on record since 1895!

Courtesy: NOAA's Climate Predication Center
What about this upcoming Winter? Since El Niño is not forecasted to be as intense as during the winter of '97-'98, we can't predict drastic flooding or extreme weather throughout the country. However, NOAA has released its three month winter outlook and the effects of this anomaly can be seen quite clearly. The Stateline can expect a 30% chance of above average temps for the Winter months. In addition, we'll stay drier - as will much of the Great Lakes region. Less snow and rain? Sounds like it's too good to be true! It'll be interesting to see how that pans out!

Among the most notable effects from this year's El Niño are the higher chances for above average precipitation reaching across the southern contiguous United States. This region will be much cooler while the Pacific Northwest will be the most likely to see above average temperatures.

-Brendan Johnson
FirstWarn Weather Intern 

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