Active Weather in the Plains Shifts East by the Middle of the Week

A very dangerous situation is occurring southeast of Oklahoma City, OK Monday evening.  Half a dozen active tornado warnings have been issued with damage already being reported.  The severe threat Monday evening and night will stay well south of the Stateline as the storms to the west shift east into Missouri and Arkansas.

For us, it's the heavy rainfall we have to be concerned with.  Light showers are beginning to
develop over Northwest Illinois with more widespread rainfall expected after 7pm/8pm.  The air mass north of a warm front in central Illinois is more stable, limiting our severe threat.  However, there will likely be a few thunderstorms through the early overnight.

Rainfall will stick around Tuesday morning, becoming less numerous by mid to late morning.  The warm front lifts to about Rockford and then stalls during the afternoon.  This means temperatures north of the front in Wisconsin will remain in the 50's, while south of the front temperatures will warm into the 70's.  With the front close by Tuesday, I can't completely rule out the threat for showers/storms redeveloping during the afternoon and evening.  But by Tuesday evening, it does appear as if we will dry out for a time.

Most of Wednesday should be dry with the warm front shifting further north over Wisconsin.  If we do end up dry and can manage some sun, then the upper 70's are a very good possibility Wednesday afternoon.  But, with the increase in sunshine also comes an increase in instability.  Right now a cold front is expected to move from west to east over Iowa and Illinois by Wednesday night.  Timing of the front for us wouldn't necessarily support a severe threat, but an earlier arrival could produce a few stronger thunderstorms.  As of Monday evening, the highest severe threat will reside just to our southwest, but close enough to keep an eye on.