Heavy Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across the Midwest/Great Lakes

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin, and for Stephenson and Jo Daviess counties in northwest Illinois beginning early Tuesday morning and lasting through Wednesday morning. Several more inches of rain are possible from the Plains into the Midwest.

A strong ridge of high pressure over the Gulf states and strong low pressure over the Rockies

will continue to pull high amounts of moisture into the Plains and Midwest Monday evening. A couple severe thunderstorms have already developed over south-central Nebraska, while a line of showers extends north along a cold front. 

Ongoing thunderstorms will be likely from Iowa to southern and central Wisconsin for the start of Tuesday. A few storms could slide a little further south into northern Illinois during the early afternoon. As the cold front moves into the Midwest Tuesday evening, thunderstorms will become a little more widespread over Wisconsin before sinking into northern Illinois by Wednesday morning. Another 1-3 inches of rain will be possible for southern and central Wisconsin, with lesser amounts to the south over northern Illinois. The chance for rain will increase, however, locally Wednesday as low pressure moves through.

Locally Dense Fog Sets in Sunday Evening

Visibility has fallen under half a mile in a few locations across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Sunday evening. The weather over the weekend has been anything but warm as both Saturday and Sunday temperatures were stuck in the 60s.

A warm front sits just to the south of northern Illinois Sunday evening and has been the focus for showers and thunderstorms, some severe,

across central Illinois. Light showers continue to fall south of Rockford, while drizzle continues to the north. The chance for rain will come to an end around 9pm or 10pm Sunday evening, but the cloud cover, fog and drizzle will continue into early Monday morning. This could have an impact on the morning commute, especially where the fog is a little more dense.

Mid to late morning Monday the warm front will

pass through northern Illinois turning skies partly cloudy. Temperatures will warm front the 60s, into the low 80s by the afternoon. You'll also notice humidity going up as well.

Strong Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Today

Before we jump into what we can expect with today's storm activity, here is a crazy statistic involving Rockford's rainfall this year. So far this year, Rockford has picked up 41.58" of rainfall. The normal for the entire year is 36.24". What does all this mean? If no more rain fell from now until the end of 2019, Rockford would still finish the year more than 5" above normal for precipitation. At this very moment in time, 2019 is set to go down as the 4th wettest year on record. With that being said, of course there will be more rain this year. And that all begins with what we can see through the day today. 

As you were sleeping, a warm frontal boundary progressed through the Stateline and is now sitting in southern Wisconsin. You can already tell the difference it has made to our surroundings outside. Temperatures dropped into the upper 50s overnight and have already started to slowly rise. Winds have become a little bit breezier as well and have shifted to a more southerly direction. The return of southerly winds will help pull in moisture northward into northern Illinois. Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning, but should pick up a little more late morning and early afternoon. Whether you are heading to work this morning, or going to school, plan on grabbing the rain gear before heading out the door.


Taking a glance at radar this morning, a few isolated showers have already formed behind the frontal boundary. However, the air at the surface is very dry as dew points remain in the upper 40s. So much of what is on radar is most likely not reaching the ground. Activity should remain scattered during the morning commute. Once we get enough moisture in the air, rain will become more widespread and heavier as we approach the mid to late morning hours. This is the first wave.

There will be a lull in the thunderstorm activity for a few hours this afternoon before the second wave arrives. A gradual uptick in storm coverage is expected after 4pm. A strong cold front to the northwest will begin to slowly inch its way southeast towards the Stateline this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front between 5pm and 10pm. As Candice mentioned in her post yesterday, storms initially will most likely run parallel to the cold front which will lead to possibly very heavy rainfall. The heaviest of the rain should remain to the south. Overall, totals across the Stateline could range between 1-3" by tonight so be on the lookout for flash flooding. Remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there could be strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front as it pushes through later today. These storms will not only pose a threat for heavy rain, but also gusty winds and large hail. For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center continues to leave much of the Stateline under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for strong to severe storms. This leaves our counties in southern Wisconsin counties under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

If you're heading out later today say to the last City Market of the year, or to any high school football games. Please make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts on your phone and stay updated with the latest weather information, and know where to shelter should strong storms threaten your location. If you are staying in for the evening, have those weather radios prepped and ready to go.

Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Threaten Friday Evening; Could Impact Some Friday Night Football Games

The weather Friday will be much different than what it's been the past couple of days as thunderstorms are likely, first during the morning and then again late in the afternoon and evening. High pressure south of the Stateline Thursday evening will quickly shift to the southeast by Friday morning. This will cause winds to shift around to the south, which in many locations they already have, increasing into Friday morning.

The return of southerly winds will work to pull moisture northward into northern Illinois early Friday morning. Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning, but should pick up a little more late morning and early afternoon. This first round of storms will be forming ahead of a warm front that will position itself across central Illinois. Warm, moist air lifting over top of the front will cause some heavier downpours into the early afternoon. The best area for those storms appear to be just to our south.

Isolated shower and storm activity will still be possible into the afternoon, but a gradual uptick in storm coverage is expected after 4pm Friday. A strong cold front to the northwest will begin to slowly inch its way southeast towards the Stateline Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front between 5pm and 9pm. Those storms are the ones that could have the heaviest rain and possibly some gusty winds and hail.

Much of the Stateline is outlined under a Slight Risk for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. Even though we likely won't see much sunshine during the afternoon there appears to be enough energy in the atmosphere for the possibility of stronger storms. Wind and hail would be the greatest concerns. As storms develop along the front, they will most likely run parallel to the front leading to the possibly of very heavy rainfall. Anywhere from one to three inches of rain will be possible by Friday night.

Many of the area high school football games have been pushed up with start times either 5pm, 5:15pm or 5:30pm. I'm hopeful games will get in, but anytime after 4pm there is a chance for thunderstorms. If you're heading out Friday, please make sure you have a way of receiving weather alerts on your phone and stay updated with the latest weather information, and know where to shelter should strong storms threaten your location.

High Pressure Keeps Us Dry Ahead of Tomorrow's Rain

We started off our Thursday morning with some cloud cover, which held our temperatures in the 60s for most of the night. Once those pesky clouds moved out, temperatures underwent a progress we call rapid cooling. Temperatures then rapidly rapidly down into the upper 40s - low 50s this morning making for a chilly start to our Thursday. One where grabbing a light jacket before heading out the door wouldn't have been a bad idea. In fact, temperatures this morning were 10-15 degrees cooler in most spots than how we were 24 hours ago.

As the day progresses, high pressure will continue to build into the region, keeping the weather quiet for the rest of our Thursday. Highs will slowly climb into the upper 60s for some and lower 70s for others. Regardless of where highs top out for the afternoon, most of the day will feature VERY fall-like conditions with temperatures in the upper 60s. Our highest wind gust at the Chicago-Rockford International Airport was 30 mph. Winds today will still be a bit breezy at times but a little lighter in strength. Winds will blow out of the west and could occasionally gust to around 20 mph.

Overnight, winds will become more southerly as a warm front quickly pushes through the Stateline and heads northward. This will play a key part in how Friday’s forecast unfolds. Most of the night will stay dry, but clouds will be on the increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Most of us should remain dry up until scattered showers begin to develop around sunrise. Winds will also pick up in intensity as the night progresses. The first round of showers and storms will likely move through just in time for the morning commute.  Having the rain gear ready to go before you head out the door would be a good call. There won't be much of a severe threat with the first round, but heavy rain is possible.

As the cold front pushes east through the afternoon, a line of strong storms look to develop across Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western portion of the Stateline in a Slight (level 2 out of 5) Risk for severe storms. As isolated thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon, the primary concerns will be for gusty large hail and an isolated tornado. Then once these storms begin to congeal and form a more linear complex, that threat transitions to mostly high wind gusts. Just make sure that your weather radios are working properly so that you can receive any watches and warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service. 

Storms could not only impact the evening commute, but also Friday Night Football games and the last City Market of the season. Heavy rainfall could also pose a concern. Models have hinted at the heaviest of the rain staying off to our south and southwest. It all really depends on where the strongest storms form along the cold front as it pushes through Friday evening.

Rockford has had a very wet month of September. So far, we have seen about 8.5″ of rainfall, so the ground is currently pretty saturated. Atmospheric moisture will be high during the late afternoon and evening tomorrow. So as said above, depending on where these storms move along the cold front, most spots could see 1-2" of rain with higher amounts in localized areas. This means flash flooding could become a concern as we head into the weekend. A few spotty showers or storms could even linger through the early hours of Friday night before drier air moves in behind the passing cold front into Saturday.

Heavy Rainfall Possible Friday

Cloud cover will hold tight Wednesday evening as an upper level trough (dip in the jet stream) moves through the Upper Midwest. Light showers are showing up on radar, but most of those are not reaching the surface. That's because our air mass is pretty dry overhead. Any rain that does fall will likely evaporate before reaching the ground.

The cold front that passed early Wednesday morning will lift back north as a warm front Friday morning. A quick return of a very moisture-rich air mass will follow the warm front Friday morning and afternoon. Rain showers and thunderstorms will be likely mid-morning Friday, some of which could have heavy rainfall.

Showers and thunderstorms will then redevelop ahead of a cold front Friday evening. Depending on how much sunshine is able to break through the cloud cover during the afternoon, some of the storms during the evening could have some stronger wind gusts. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat through Friday night.

Rainfall totals could add up to another couple inches for some by Saturday morning. The flow

in the atmosphere will line up nearly parallel to the cold front Friday night, setting the stage for the possibility of heavy rain. The heaviest may occur south of Rockford, but areas throughout Whiteside, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties could stand to see another couple inches of rain.

Cold Front Brings Another Breezy Afternoon

A cold front that sits to our west is the story for today as this frontal boundary will usher in cooler weather as it slides through the Stateline. There was a few showers that formed ahead of the front overnight and tracked through this morning. However, not everyone walked outside and saw rain. If you live along and north of Highway 20, you likely didn’t see much of anything in terms of rain. A few spotty showers or patches of drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out ahead of the cold frontal passage, but most areas will remain dry. Gusty southwesterly winds and cloud cover held temperatures this morning in the 60s.
 

Temperatures this afternoon will still be able to warm up into the mid 70s, because it might take a bit of time before the cold air behind the front settles in. The cold front slides through by around midday, turning winds from the southwest to out of the northwest. Winds could again become gusty today, especially during the afternoon. Just like yesterday, winds could top out around 25 to 30 mph, so make sure your grip on the steering wheel is tight.
 

Skies will turn partly sunny through the afternoon as some clouds look to build in from the leftover moisture aloft in the atmosphere. A surface high pressure system to the west will keep things dry overnight tonight. Most of the night will remain partly cloudy. However, hi-res models do show a weak disturbance moving in by tomorrow morning. This could add in some more cloud cover as you plan and start your day tomorrow. Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures by Thursday morning will rapidly fall or as we refer to it as "bottoming out" into the upper 40s - low 50s. Which is right around where we should be as far as our average lows for this time of the year. The cool start to Thursday gives you a little hint on how the rest of the day looks to shape up. Highs tomorrow only climb into the upper 60s. While hitting 70° isn’t entirely out of the question, it looks like most areas will spend the better part of the day in the 60’s.

Rain Moves in Tuesday Night While Severe Storms Move Through the Midwest

The day began with a little cloud cover Tuesday morning, but sunshine was quick to return warming temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s. Gusty southerly winds through Tuesday evening will keep temperatures in the 70s, and hold overnight lows in the mid 60s.

Strong to severe thunderstorms have quickly developed west of the Mississippi River Tuesday evening, with numerous severe thunderstorm

warnings and even a couple tornado warnings. A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of west-central and central Iowa, Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Those storms are forming along and ahead of a cold front that will move through Iowa this evening, and then through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Wednesday morning. By the time the storms arrive they won't be as strong as

they currently are in Iowa and Minnesota, but could produce some heavier downpours during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The cold front will push east mid-morning as west winds increase during the afternoon. We'll see mostly cloudy skies at times through Wednesday night, but the majority of the afternoon and evening will remain dry.

Dry Weather Continues, Windy Afternoon

Good morning Stateline! What a beautiful start to the season of Fall here in the Stateline. Humidity wasn't a problem, there was plenty of sunshine, and our highs climbed into the upper 70s. Now, if you weren't able to enjoy the sunshine yesterday, you will have another chance to do that today. Our Tuesday will kick off with fall-like temperatures and a bit of cloud cover. You won't need the rain gear today, but a light jacket might be needed for that morning chill.

As the day progresses, these morning clouds will give way to partly sunny skies, but windy conditions for the rest of Tuesday. The source of our windy afternoon comes from the surface high pressure system that gave us sunshine yesterday, and the cold frontal boundary that will be pushing through later tonight. With these two systems being so close to one another, they cause a tight pressure gradient at the surface. The tighter the pressure gradient, the stronger your wind gusts will be. For this afternoon, we can expect warm southwesterly winds that could occasionally gust to around 30 mph at times. So hold onto your hats everyone. The warmer winds will boost our temperatures to the upper 70s, and a few spots may get to 80 degrees. The humidity will be on the rise again, but not to the levels we saw over the weekend.

Farther our west, the cold front specified above will bring severe weather to portions of the Upper Midwest and Midwest. That is why portions of Iowa and Minnesota are under an Enhance Risk (category 3 of 5) for severe weather. For us here in the Stateline, the severe risk seems to remain on the low side. The Storm Prediction Center has left most if not all of the viewing area under the general thunderstorm (non-severe) risk category.

The first half of our night will remain dry as the cold front approaches. However, clouds will be on the increase overnight tonight before shower and thunderstorm chances kick off a few hours before the morning commute. As this cold front pushes through, we may see a few brief downpours, but nothing too substantial. Conditions will dry out after the front has fully progressed through our area. Temperatures will only climb into the low 70s. Fall-like weather will continue into the second half of the work week. We’ll see more sunshine, very low humidity, and much cooler temperatures. And when we say cool, we mean cool. Highs on Thursday are only set to rise to the upper 60s.

Rain Returns Mid-Week; Severe Threat Out West

Welcome to Fall! It's been a beautiful Fall afternoon filled with plenty of sun, comfortable temperatures and mostly importantly - dry skies! High pressure dominated the skies Monday afternoon and will continue to do so Tuesday. Surface winds will shift to the southwest early in the day, pushing highs into the mid and upper 70s. The leading edge of the warmth Tuesday morning may briefly turn skies mostly cloudy, but sunshine will return for the afternoon.

Out to the west a cold front will be moving through the Plains during the afternoon. Strong to severe storms will be possible from Wisconsin down through southwest Iowa late afternoon and evening. As the front moves east, clouds will be on the increase locally. The chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase through the night and early Wednesday as the cold front moves through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Our overall severe threat looks fairly limited due to the timing of the cold front.

Moisture present in the atmosphere isn't expected to be as high it was last week or over the weekend, so rainfall should not be as heavy. The best chance for rain will be during the morning, with drier skies expected for the afternoon.

Feeling like Fall Just in Time for the Fall Equinox

Once the clock stroke 2:50 early this morning, that marked the official end of summer and we welcomed in the season of Autumn. With that said, happy first day of Fall Stateline. The fall season stretches from today, September 23rd, to Sunday, December 22nd. It is during the fall season that we also see the largest high temperature drop of the year. At the beginning of Fall, average highs tend to be in the low 70s. Then as we go through October, November, and December, that is where we see our average highs significantly drop down into the low 30s. Brrrrrr. 

Temperatures started out much cooler this morning, in the low 50s, and it was all because of the same cold front that brought the rain over the weekend. It’s a cool and comfortable start, as dew points have also fallen into the 50’s. If you’re getting ready to head out the door for work or for any errands, don’t forget to grab the sunglasses as the sunshine is here to stay. It may be a bit breezy at times as winds through the afternoon will occasionally gust up to 20 mph out of the west-northwest.
 

This northwesterly direction in the winds will pull in drier air as a massive dome of high pressure builds across the Midwest and Great Plains. Today is going to be a 10/10 and we encourage you to go outside and enjoy the weather. Highs today will only climb into the low 70s. Dry conditions will remain in place overnight as high pressure slides to the south, but a few more clouds may be in place by Tuesday morning.  Maybe even some patchy fog as well. Some models are hinting at a few light sprinkles early Tuesday, but most of us will remain dry. Tomorrow forecast features more sunshine, but more clouds will be likely and it may even feel a tad more humid. Winds overnight will change to a more southwesterly direction. These southwesterly winds will bring a little bit more humidity to the region. In fact, breezy conditions will once again take over our afternoon tomorrow. Gusts could get to as high as 30 mph.

Clouds will increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances return after midnight as another cold front approaches from the west. The threat for severe storms is low, but could see a few storms pack gusty winds or even large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of our region under a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather through early Wednesday morning. Wednesday features a chance for showers and storms early, but most of the Stateline will dry out by the afternoon with highs in the middle 70’s. Highs may only be in the upper 60’s on Thursday following the this cold front. The roller coaster of temperatures will continue through much of this week.

Flash Flood Watch Remains in Effect Sunday

7pm Update: The Flash Flood Watch has been canceled for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

6PM Update: Back edge of the steady rain continues to move west to east Sunday evening. A cold front stretching through Iowa will move through the Stateline around Midnight, bringing with it a few more showers. Those won't last as long as the rain that is coming to end and skies will turn partly cloudy by Monday morning. Here are some of the two day rainfall totals we've received so far as of Sunday afternoon.













 Sunday Afternoon:

The entire Stateline remains under a Flash Flood Watch through early Monday morning. Even though flash flooding has not occurred, rivers are high and there has been quite a bit of standing water in ditches, fields and back yards. Rainfall amounts between Saturday and Sunday afternoon have added up to a couple inches in some local spots.

A light, steady rain continues to fall Sunday afternoon but there will be a few pockets of heavier rainfall through Sunday evening. The steady rain will continue through roughly 8pm or 9pm, with scattered activity during the overnight. Areas of fog will be likely as well by Monday
morning.

Heavy Rain Possible Over the Weekend

Following heavy rainfall yesterday, the leftover moisture did bring some patchy fog to the Stateline to start our Friday morning. Visibility did fall below a mile in a few spots at times. But the good news is, most of the morning has been quiet and dry. Many dry hours are in store for us as partly sunny skies will stick around through the rest of our day today. However, the atmosphere still is moisture-rich which could lead to a few very isolated showers or thunderstorms later in the day. There isn’t much of a lifting mechanism for widespread development like yesterday, so that is why today's activity will be more isolated. If you are heading to Friday Night Football, game of the week is Orangeville vs Du-Pac, or to City Market, I would keep the umbrella in the car just in case. But this evening should be fairly dry and muggy for you to enjoy the festivities.  Highs today climb into the low 80s. 

Saturday may start with dry weather, but rain chances will continue as the day progresses. If you have outdoor plans for Saturday, your best chance for dry weather will be before noon. For people that are participating in the Thin Mint Sprint, including yours truly, clouds will be quick to increase tomorrow morning and showers will be very spotty in nature. Overnight Saturday into Sunday is the period of most concern for flash flooding.

Several rounds of heavy rainfall are poised to slide into the Stateline. As of this morning, a Flash Flood Watch was issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside Counties until 1 A.M. Monday. The source of our moisture is related to the remnants of former Tropical Depression Imelda. This is the same system that has brought over 40" of rainfall to parts of Southeast Texas. In fact, a preliminary report of 43.31" of rainfall was recorded in Jefferson County, TX. That places Imelda 5th in the record books for wettest tropical cyclones to impact the lower 48. Now, record to near-record atmospheric moisture gets picked up by the jet stream and lifted northward into northern Illinois. We won't be seeing 40" of rain, but this high level of moisture could lead to rainfall rates of 1″ to 2″ per hour as stated in the flash flood watch. Especially Saturday night into Sunday morning. And with how wet September has been so far, the Stateline does not need this extra rainfall.

Recent model trends have decreased overall rainfall totals locally, as it looks like the axis of heaviest rain will be just south and west of us. However, most places could end up with 1 to 3 inches when this is all said and done. Regardless of how much actually falls, it will be falling on top of an already saturated ground. Be on the lookout for any flooded roadways as you travel this weekend. Remember, turn around - don't drown. Rain chances remain high through much of our Sunday. The stubborn cold front finally clears the region by Monday morning, bringing a cooler temperatures just in time for the first official day of fall. Not only that, a high pressure system will follow the cold front and bring a dry start to not only Fall, but for the start of the work week as well.