Saturday, April 16, 2016

Thunderstorms in the Forecast?

We did it! For the first time this year, we have hit the 80-degree mark in Rockford, nearly a month earlier than last year when it first happened on May 6th! The 80° we saw today was only 6° shy of our record high for the date, which was set back in 2002. The good news if you're a fan of the warmth is that it isn't going anywhere for another two days. Both Sunday and Monday should feature high temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s with ample sunshine each day. Things will begin to change once Tuesday arrives as our strong area of high pressure finally weakens and moves away from the region.

A weak disturbance will arrive Tuesday and bring some scattered afternoon and evening showers, possibly even a rumble of thunder or two. Not only that, but temperatures will be much cooler in the 60s. Wednesday also features a chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a low pressure system that will likely move overhead on Thursday, sparking an additional chance -- and likely the best chance -- of rain and storms. There is some CAPE (instability, or energy for thunderstorm development) available through the week, which will support some thunderstorms, but severe weather doesn't appear very likely at this time.

Another difference next week will be dew points and relatively humidity values. They will be higher than they have been of late, with dew points exceeding 50° each day. That isn't necessarily considered humid per se, but it will feel a little more humid to you on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

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