Saturday, July 16, 2016

Sunday Storm Potential Update

Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected to affect portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday evening and night. A decaying round of rain and thunderstorms is going to approach the region from the west near sunrise Sunday. That will not be severe, and not everyone will see the rain with that complex early Sunday. That rain will clear out later in the morning with some sunshine anticipated in the afternoon. That will allow for our atmosphere to destabilize sufficiently to support strong and severe thunderstorms in the evening and night along and ahead of a cold front.

If we don't see the sunshine we are currently expecting, our risk for severe thunderstorms later Sunday goes down. However, if we see more sunshine than anticipated, the threat for storms and severe weather increases further. It will be very humid on Sunday as well with high moisture levels. This will support very heavy rainfall with any stronger storms later in the day. In addition, many of the severe weather forecasting variables we look at are very supportive of severe weather.

The main concerns will include damaging winds, large hail, and potentially an isolated tornado or two across the yellow (Slight Risk) region shown on the severe weather outlook map above. If the morning rain and clouds move out quick enough, we could see an upgrade to a higher probability of severe weather. That will be known early Sunday morning.

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