Cool & rainy or dry and warm: What will next week bring

Other than a few showers here and there, it's been a pretty quiet couple of weeks in the weather department and that trend looks to continue through the weekend.  Next week, however, a big pattern change is in the works that will bring rain and even a few thunderstorms with it.  While the rain is for certain, it's what will happen in the days that follow that are a little more fuzzy.

Low pressure will move from the southern Plains through Illinois and into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning.  With the strength of the

system and dynamics from the jet stream, another round of heavier rain could be possible by Monday evening.  However, forecast models disagree as to just how fast the low shifts east.  The European forecast models want to hang on to the low a little longer and basically cut it off from the main jet stream.  If this were to happen low clouds, a cool east breeze and scattered showers would persist through at least next Wednesday.  The American GFS, however, quickly shifts the low to the east with a strong ridge of high pressure building in behind.  If that were to happen, skies would clear and temperatures would rise back into the middle and upper 60's.

Large scale systems, like the one expected Monday, are more likely during the spring and fall months because that's usually when we begin to see the greatest temperature contrasts from north to south.  With these types of systems, they also tend to move a little more slowly which makes me believe the low will hang around through at least Wednesday, if not Thursday, before moving east next week.