Winter woes: Could this winter be like last winter?

It's been the topic of discussion for many over the past few weeks.  Just what does winter 2014-2015 have in store for us?  Is it going to be like last winter - snowy and cold?  Or, are we going to have something completely opposite?  Time will tell, but there are some atmospheric signals we can look at that may give us a little bit of a clue as to what we can expect.

This past summer was just a littler cooler and wetter than average, although not by much.  El Nino occurred during the summer and the Climate Prediction Center gives roughly a 60% - 65% chance of El Nino emerging during the fall and winter months.  Forecasters are expecting a weak El Nino event to occur and last through Spring 2015.  What does that mean for our winter?  Well, according to Jim Angel, state Climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey, El Nino events can vary in size, duration and intensity which can lead to variation from event to event.

Overall, the general trend of El Nino during the winter months include a warmer and drier winter with roughly 70% - 90% of average snowfall.  The Polar Jet Stream is shifted north and a little weaker than the Pacific Jet Stream which remains across the south.  This keeps the wet weather and active storm track to the south with slightly warmer than average temperatures in the northern Rockies, Plains and Midwest.  Remember, though that this is the 'average' trend and there can be exceptions.  While we'll likely have some pretty cold and snowy days, the overall three month average temperature & snowfall could be slightly warmer and near normal snowfall.