Monday weather update: Severe weather stays south, heavy rainfall likely north

A significant severe weather event will likely unfold across Arkansas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Louisiana and southeast Missouri this morning and afternoon.  An ongoing line of severe thunderstorms has already produced at least one tornado in Arkansas this morning with one confirmed fatality.  Severe weather this afternoon will remain in the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley closer tied to a strong cold front and low pressure system.  Further north, heavy rainfall will become a concern this afternoon and evening for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

Skies will remain cloudy through the morning and early afternoon for the Stateline with the threat for rain increasing after 2pm.  Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to lift north and will reach the Quad Cities between 11am and Noon, and the I-88 corridor around 2pm.  While these thunderstorms are not expected to be severe, heavy rainfall into the evening will be likely.  Drier air wrapping in on the backside of the low could cut off some of the rainfall overnight, but additional showers are likely through mid-day Tuesday.  Through Wednesday morning, one to two inches of rain will be possible.