Summer has been in full swing since we had that little taste of fall two weekends ago. After highs topped out in the upper 80s Sunday afternoon, expect more of the same for the work week ahead.
High pressure locked over the Great Lakes will keep us warm and dry underneath a strong ridge that has taken over the eastern U.S. In a similar fashion to Sunday, expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs falling short of the 90° mark. Thankfully, this will be a dry heat as dew point temperatures will be sitting in the upper 40s and low 50s for much of the day. In other words, humidity levels will be reasonable despite how above-average temperatures will be this afternoon.
Night owls, be sure to keep tabs on the Space Weather Prediction Center's website as we have yet another opportunity to view the northern lights. The viewing line this time extends from the Pacific Northwest to the central plains to the Great Lakes.
The best times will all depend on the arrival of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME). No issues weather-wise as skies remain partly cloudy with temperatures falling into the upper 50s.
Forecast models bring in very dry conditions Tuesday, leaving us mostly sunny. Again, temperatures remain above-average in the upper 80s. We can expect mid to upper 80s the rest of the way with conditions staying dry until late Friday. That's when this ridge of high pressure aloft breaks down, allowing some moisture to advect into the Great Lakes. This will bring a spike in humidity levels as well as a small chance for rain that extends into the upcoming weekend.
It has now been more than 2 weeks since the last measurable rainfall in Rockford, and we haven't seen much even going back to the end of July either. The last 4 big rainfall events at the Rockford airport have not amounted to much in aggregate, and it's been almost 2 months since the last rainfall of more than 1". In September, we have only seen a trace amount of rain so far to start the month, tying the driest start to the month on record.
Temperatures will once again fall to the low 60s for many of us, owing to some clouds and a teeny bit of moisture lingering near the surface. Another mild night on tap with light winds from the ESE.
It will be warm and dry in the Stateline for a few more days, with highs well into the 80s Monday and Tuesday under a bit more sunshine. Overnight lows will be a tiny bit lower down in the 50s due to lack of moisture and cloud cover that would normally indicate mild nights.
There will be a slightly higher risk for brush fires and grass fires this week. Warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall will lead to low humidity levels and dry vegetation. Limit any outdoor burning, and be sure to have a safety plan in place to put out any fires before they get out of control.
The dry weather will stick around a bit longer due to a blocking pattern in the atmosphere, with ridging and high pressure to the East while troughing and low pressure remains West. This places us within a dry Easterly flow aloft, keeping moisture and associated rain chances low through much of the week. We may see a slight increase in cloud cover mid-week from a decaying tropical system moving in from the Carolinas, but no rainfall expected until the pattern breaks. This likely arrives sometime next weekend, but until then, we will continue to see a dry and warm summer-like forecast.
It has been a very dry September so far, with only a trace amount of rain at the Rockford airport through Saturday. This is nearly 2 inches shy from where we should be halfway through the month now. Unfortunately, that has been paired with a dry summer aside from July. In total, we are in a rainfall deficit of 0.56" since June 1st.
The few rain chances that looked plausible over the weekend fizzled out before reaching us, mainly due to a lack of moisture and upper-level forcing to develop showers. We saw a few isolated showers and storms near the Quad Cities and Southward, but nothing in the Stateline.
Moisture remains limited, keeping what few showers that form very isolated in nature and mainly in Eastern Iowa both tonight and early tomorrow. Those who do see any rain will only see a brief shower that will not do much to cut into the rainfall deficit.
Unfortunately, the rest of next week also looks very dry with another push of dry air Monday and Tuesday. Many computer models keep the Stateline completely dry through the end of next week. Our next main chance for any meaningful rain likely won't arrive until at least next weekend.
Tomorrow will be another very similar day to what we saw Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and more sunshine filtered within upper-level clouds. Aside from the very small chance for a sprinkle early in the day, it will be another warm and dry day.
The dry stretch will be accompanied by unseasonable stretch of warmth as well, with highs into the mid and upper 80s through the forecast period. Overnight lows will be slightly above average, but the dry air should allow many nights to reach the upper 50s. Aside from the slim chance for rain early tomorrow, our next rain won't arrive until next weekend.
Throughout the past few weeks, the main weather theme has been high pressure keeping the Midwest calm and dry through much of the first half of September. This is common with high pressure systems as they often decrease upper-level wind flow as well as keep surface conditions relatively dry as moisture is often stunted away from the high pressure. This has been the story for much of the early part of the month and expect those conditions to continue.
Throughout the weekend however, water vapor imagery as well as Precipitable Water or moisture content in the atmosphere, show that with the landfall of formerly Hurricane Francine increased water vapor and moisture will be present throughout the Midwest.
Through Saturday this increased moisture content stick around helping fuel some very isolated showers through this time.
Throughout Saturday afternoon and into the evening on Saturday heavier cloud cover along with increasing shower chances will be the main story. Comparing Future cast to the moisture content graphic it's easy to see that areas to the west near the Mississippi River will have high chances for both cloud cover and rainfall. Throughout much of the state line we will keep our chances slim to isolated as we will be right on the gradient of higher moisture content.
After the weekend though expect high pressure to continue to build to our east. This will slowly cutoff the remnants of Hurrican Francine as well as cutoff any moisture we will have through the week.
By Wednesday, we will be very dry across the state line with this pattern continuing through the rest of the week. Lower pressure and stronger upper-level winds will remain to the west as high pressure "blocks" any of that moving east.
This is reflected well in the seven-day forecast as after the weekend's slim chances we will remain dry through the entire week. Expect summer like conditions to stick around through the week with plenty of sunshine and mid 80-degree temperatures to continue.
Some moisture flowing Northward from Hurricane Francine's remnants developed some showers as far North as Central Illinois, but dry air quickly took over, limiting the coverage by the afternoon. Locally, we have only seen some additional cloud cover mainly in the form of cirrus clouds.
Fortunately, that means pleasant weather for the Friday night football games across the Stateline, with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the evening as temperatures fall into the low 70s by 9PM. Overnight lows will be down in the low 60s for most.
Temperatures start mild tomorrow morning and only warm from there, getting into the mid-80s under partly sunny skies a bit thicker than they were Friday afternoon. A few very spotty showers may attempt to develop across the Western half of the Stateline overnight, but those will be scattered in coverage at best.
Our only rain chances in the short term look to come between Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Any rain we do see will be very scattered in nature with very little accumulation. Greater chances look to be West of I-39, but even there the coverage looks to be scattered at best.
Looking ahead beyond the weekend, a continued dry pattern looks to remain locked in place with a blocking pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Repeated rounds of troughing across the Western half of the country will lead to cooler and generally wetter weather there, while ridging to the East keeps us high and dry. Temperature-wise, this indicates the mid-80s high temperatures will be the story throughout the week. Overnight lows will also be above average, settling in the low 60s most days.
Even with the little rain we may see over the weekend, it will not add up to much in the grand scheme of things. At best, 0.25" seems to be the upper thresholds of what we will see locally in the Stateline, which will not do much for worsening drought conditions. Beyond the weekend, little to no rain chances will be in the forecast until the middle or end of next week.
Dry weather looks to stick around even toward the end of the month, with near to below average precipitation between the 19th and 23rd. Meanwhile, there is high confidence in above average temperatures during that same time frame. Looking ahead to long term patterns, our next chance for meaningful rain (>0.25") may not arrive until the end of next week if not longer. This would only exasperate drought conditions if these forecasts were to come true.
Clouds have blanketed the Stateline as the remnants of Francine spin to our south. This has left morning temperatures considerably warmer, leaving some locales in the mid 60s.
Unlike Thursday, this morning's warmer start won't result in a warmer afternoon. Winds will be more out of the southeast, placing highs in the low 80s. This all happening under mixed sunshine.
We'll see more of the same this weekend. There may be enough northward extent with the moisture associated with Francine's leftover to where we may see a slim chance for widely scattered showers, especially late Saturday into Sunday.
Expect afternoon highs to remain summer-like with low 80s for Saturday and upper 80s for Sunday. Next week looks extremely dry and warm as afternoon highs remain in the mid to upper 80s.
The latest drought monitor is in and it's not looking good for the Land of Lincoln.
Almost 77% of the state is under the abnormally dry category whereas almost 20% of the state, mainly in S. Illinois, is under a moderate drought.
Wisconsin is trending in the same direction with 46% of the state seeing abnormally dry conditions.
Rain chances remain limited moving forward as the richest moisture remains well to our south closer to the remnants of Hurricane Francine.
There may be enough northward extent that may result in a few widely scattered showers late Saturday, with chances lingering into the early stages of next week. Nothing that would be a game-changer when it comes to our growing drought.
The remnants of hurricane Francine are still producing heavy rain across the Southeastern/Gulf Coast regions with expansive cloud cover flowing out ahead of it even into Central Illinois. As the remnants inch closer to the Stateline, cloud cover will thicken up locally especially in the upper levels. As a result, temperatures will only fall to the low 60s this time around, a touch warmer than the last few nights.
Our chances for rain also creep up over the weekend as the moisture off the residual low pressure from Francine's remnants. Widespread rain appears unlikely this far North, as a blocking high pressure to the Northeast will prevent widespread moisture from reaching us. Scattered showers at best will be the story up here, with the best chances for those South and West of Rockford. Temperatures will remain warm this weekend despite the chances for rain, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s.
At best, some spots may pick up around 0.5" of rainfall between the scattered chances Saturday and Sunday. At worst, some may see nothing at all. Again, better chances for meaningful rain appears to be mainly to the West and well South.
The rainfall is needed as we have been in a dry stretch as of late. So far, September has only seen a trace amount of rainfall at the Rockford airport, more than 1.5" short from the average. Additionally, the last measurable rain (over 0.01") was August 29th, nearly 2 weeks ago. Already so far this is within the top 10 driest starts to September and has the potential to remain dry for longer into the month.
The latest drought monitor from https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ shows much of the Stateline now within abnormally dry conditions. While not technically drought conditions, it does signify the growing gap in our rainfall deficit over the Stateline. The next drought monitor will come out next Thursday morning.
Our rainfall gap may not be aided much by the upcoming pattern. Few rain chances are featured through much of next week. Aside from the weekend, we may see more moisture by mid-next week, but even that doesn't look to provide much widespread rain again. Long term, there is very high confidence in above average temperatures and neutral confidence in above average or below average precipitation between the 18th-22nd. If we don't see much rain over this weekend, the warm and dry stretch may only exasperate our rainfall deficit and approaching drought conditions.
Skies were extremely hazy Wednesday as thick smoke tracked through our atmosphere. Expect that to stick around for one more day before subtle changes in our weather pattern arrive by the weekend.
Thursday will be dry from start to finish, though the warming trend continues as afternoon highs end up in the mid to upper 80s. Thankfully, humidity stays reasonable, so those who have outdoor plans won't have to worry about muggy conditions.
Moisture streaming northward out ahead of what is now tropical storm Francine will allow cloud cover to increase locally overnight. Some of this cloud cover will stick around for our Friday, leaving us with partly cloudy with highs in the low 80s.
With a blocking pattern setting up aloft, the remnants of Francine and the moisture associated with it will have a hard time pressing northward. Scattered showers may be possible over the weekend, with the highest coverage arriving Sunday as the remnant low is closest. However, the lack of atmospheric forcing and moisture will keep shower coverage very
limited compared to areas in southern Illinois.
Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon as a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds up to 100 mph. The hurricane will quickly weaken into a post-tropical depression through the weekend as it gradually works its way North closer to the Stateline.
Our weather will be impacted by the remnants of hurricane Francine. The low pressure represents the remnants of the hurricane as it moves toward Southern Illinois by the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will develop in the Northeast, creating a blocking pattern. This will prevent the remnant low from making its way very far North. As a result, the highest moisture will also remain out of our area, keeping rain chances limited compared to those in the Southern half of the state.
Locally, only scattered showers will be the story Saturday and Sunday. Higher coverage may be possible Sunday as the remnant low is closest, but a general lack of forcing and moisture will keep shower coverage limited compared to areas downstate. Sunday may provide a little more coverage compared to Saturday. Some may stay dry both days with the lower coverage of rain.
Temperatures will not be impacted that much by the remnant hurricane but will be a touch lower over the weekend with thicker cloud cover. Highs will remain in the 80s throughout the entire week, remaining above the average high of 77°.
The long-term outlook is favoring very high confidence in continued warmth, with greater than 90% confidence in above average temperatures between the 17th-21st, per the Climate Prediction Center forecast. The average high in Rockford will fall to around 70° by the end of the month.
