Little change in ongoing dry conditions

 

The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows very little change for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with the ongoing dry/drought conditions last week.

While some improvements were noted in downstate Illinois, there wasn't much change in both the 'abnormally dry' and 'moderate drought' categories for both southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. It looks like we'll end the month of September with almost an inch and a half deficit, despite some of the heavier rainfall that occurred early last week.

Longer range outlooks into the middle of October are a bit concerning as it is showing a higher probability for below average precipitation for not only the Stateline, but a good portion of the country. While we'll see a few cold fronts pass through this week most of them will come through the dry. The first arrives late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

A slight increase in moisture ahead of the front may allow for a few spotty sprinkles or very light showers to occur, but nothing that would be enough to really measure by sunrise Tuesday. The second front comes through late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Again, this will have a little moisture associated with it but rain chances - at this point - will remain capped within the 20-30 percent range.

The overall pattern into the month of October is favoring a higher probability for above average temperatures, according to the latest outlooks from the Climate Predication Center. This pattern has a lot to do with the lack of colder air moving in from the north. The jet stream pattern over the next week or so is favoring more of an air mass from the Pacific, rather than from Canada or the Arctic. This means that as a series of cold fronts move through this week, we will feel a drop in temperatures but that drop will only bring us closer to where we should be for the beginning of October - middle to upper 60s. And even after those dips we will warm right back up to temperatures that are above average. This type of pattern looks to hold through at least the middle of the month.