Friday, September 13, 2024

Continual dry pattern settling in over the Stateline

 Some moisture flowing Northward from Hurricane Francine's remnants developed some showers as far North as Central Illinois, but dry air quickly took over, limiting the coverage by the afternoon. Locally, we have only seen some additional cloud cover mainly in the form of cirrus clouds.

Fortunately, that means pleasant weather for the Friday night football games across the Stateline, with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the evening as temperatures fall into the low 70s by 9PM. Overnight lows will be down in the low 60s for most.

Temperatures start mild tomorrow morning and only warm from there, getting into the mid-80s under partly sunny skies a bit thicker than they were Friday afternoon. A few very spotty showers may attempt to develop across the Western half of the Stateline overnight, but those will be scattered in coverage at best.

Our only rain chances in the short term look to come between Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Any rain we do see will be very scattered in nature with very little accumulation. Greater chances look to be West of I-39, but even there the coverage looks to be scattered at best.

Looking ahead beyond the weekend, a continued dry pattern looks to remain locked in place with a blocking pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Repeated rounds of troughing across the Western half of the country will lead to cooler and generally wetter weather there, while ridging to the East keeps us high and dry. Temperature-wise, this indicates the mid-80s high temperatures will be the story throughout the week. Overnight lows will also be above average, settling in the low 60s most days.

Even with the little rain we may see over the weekend, it will not add up to much in the grand scheme of things. At best, 0.25" seems to be the upper thresholds of what we will see locally in the Stateline, which will not do much for worsening drought conditions. Beyond the weekend, little to no rain chances will be in the forecast until the middle or end of next week.

Dry weather looks to stick around even toward the end of the month, with near to below average precipitation between the 19th and 23rd. Meanwhile, there is high confidence in above average temperatures during that same time frame. Looking ahead to long term patterns, our next chance for meaningful rain (>0.25") may not arrive until the end of next week if not longer. This would only exasperate drought conditions if these forecasts were to come true.

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