Our dry stretch of weather continues to grow drought conditions in the Stateline, with only a trace amount of rain so far in this whole month. This translates to 2.42" of rainfall deficit, in addition to nearly 2" of rainfall deficit in the month of August. This year is now the only September in Rockford's history to feature zero measurable rainfall through the 19th.
Our next chance for some much-needed rain looks to come later tonight in the form of some isolated storms developing along a cold front to the Northwest. These storms will not reach the Stateline until near or shortly after midnight, with a quickly weakening trend in the storm intensity. As a result, some may see brief pockets of heavy rain, especially far NW portions of the Stateline, while others South and East may see little to no rain.
Better coverage of rain may be possible beyond into the weekend, with better quality moisture in the atmosphere as our next system lifts into the area from the Southwestern U.S. That said, there is some drier air to the North that may cut off soaking rain showers from reaching very far into Southern Wisconsin.
There may be a sharp cutoff between scattered showers and potential soaking rain between Sunday and Monday, with a chance for a couple embedded thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening as well. All told, total rainfall may reach between 0.5"-1.0" between Sunday and Monday, eating into our rainfall deficit mentioned above.
One other thing that Sunday and Monday's weather system brings is a cooler trend in temperatures next week to start off Astronomical Fall. Afternoon highs will settle in the 70s through much of next week, very similar to the average highs for this time of year.
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