Thursday, September 8, 2011

Are we heading into another winter like last year?

The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Nina Advisory meaning La Nina conditions are observed and are expected to continue.

La Nina conditions returned in August 2011 as sea surface temperatures remained negative across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (figure on the left).  Last month the CPC had issued a La Nina Watch meaning that there were some signs that supported the redevelopment of La Nina during the 2011-2012 winter season.  The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has continued to exhibit La Nina characteristics, although to  a weaker extent, but also the low level easterly and upper level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific.  These are all indicators that reflect the return of La Nina conditions.

So what does this mean?  Well, it could mean that once again the northern Plains will be cold and snowy (maybe not quite as much as last winter), there could be a few more cooler season severe weather episodes and above average precipitation along the Pacific Northwest.  Definitely something to keep an eye on the next couple months.

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