Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Two heavy rain events hit the East coast

Low pressure in the southeast continues to bring heavy and flooding rain to the Mid-Atlantic and East coast Tuesday evening, with the heaviest falling tonight into Wednesday morning.  The cold front that passed us this morning will push that rain further into the Atlantic, only for the coast to be hit with another, and stronger, low pressure system by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Joaquin has developed in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds now of 65 mph, currently moving west/southwest at 5mph.  Many along the East coast are watching that Tropical Storm, along with a forecast cut-off low expected to develop Thursday in the southeast.  Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to strengthen to hurricane status as early as tomorrow afternoon as a Category One hurricane.  While it isn't expected to have a direct hit on the East coast, the cut-off will pull tropical moisture from the storm northwest as it moves up from the southeast to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday.  Forecast 7-day rainfall totals predict nearly 10 inches of rain falling for areas like Boston, New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island.

The steering winds in the atmosphere feature strong high pressure over the northern Great Lakes and in Bermuda.  Unfortunately, that doesn't leave much room for either low with the East coast almost in the direct line of path.

As the surface low strengthens in the southeast late this week, strong winds will provide flooding and beach erosion for coastal areas. 

While we remain dry through the week, some of that moisture could get pulled this far west depending on how far inland the low tracks.  If that were to happen, light rain and cloud cover is a good bet for late Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  It would also mean our temperatures would stay cold with highs only near 60 degrees.

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