Saturday, February 20, 2016

A Near Miss Next Week

We haven't seen a significant winter storm in 2016, and that doesn't appear likely to change. However, it will come ever so close to changing during the middle part of next week. A low pressure system will form down in Texas and then move northeastward towards the Ohio Valley, strengthening as it does. This track shown at the left is the average of all of the models. In other words, this track is the most likely track that the low will take. And, if this comes to fruition, the snow and wintry precipitation will stay well to our east, possibly getting as close as Indiana.
 While unlikely at this time, it is possible that the system takes a track a little further northwest. This track would send the low through Indiana. As a result, the area of wintry weather and snow would be very close to the Stateline, if not including the Stateline. This track isn't likely, but it is something that needs to be monitored because the meteorological setup next week is very complicated and dynamic. Therefore, things can and will change. Now does that mean the track of the low will change drastically? Not necessarily. The other important aspect of the unlikely track is the fact that these strong, southern lows tend to shift northwestward over time, climatologically speaking. If this were to happen in this scenario, we could be dealing with some snow Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

This storm is one of the weather headlines for the next seven days. We will likely see a mainly dry week next week with temperatures in the 30's and 40's. A few upper 20's cannot be ruled out either next week, especially on Thursday and Friday. There will be several slim chances of seeing some very light rain or snow showers throughout the week, but nothing significant is expected at this time.

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