Friday, February 26, 2016

Beautiful Weekend, then Wintry?

Well, we had a dreary and cold Friday across the region as clouds held strong. Things are already beginning to change this evening, though. A system well to our north is continuing to move east, which is allowing drier and warmer air to enter the area from the southwest as high pressure dominates the middle of the country this weekend. In fact, behind breezy southwesterly winds and sunshine, we will see mid-50's Saturday and potentially upper 50's come Sunday. Models are suggesting 60° being possible on Sunday! The only negative surrounding the weekend forecast is the potential for gusty winds upwards of 25-35 MPH and a few light showers that may affect portions of the Stateline come Sunday. However, any rain we do see will be very light. Many locations will likely remain dry.

We aren't the only ones getting in on some of the warmer than average temperatures. Just off to our west and southwest, 60's and even 70's are in the forecast this weekend as a result of that area of high pressure centered near Memphis, Tennessee. While the heart of that warmth won't stretch this far north, middle and upper 50's are over 20° warmer than normal for this time of year. The mild air is continuing to look like it will stick around for Monday as well. Despite a cool front sweeping through the region Sunday evening, plenty of sunshine and dry conditions will likely warm us back up into the lower 50's on Monday. This will give us our first 3-day streak of 50-degree temperatures in quite some time!

All good things must come to an end, though, right? Well, that saying will hold true for our weather into next week as cold and potentially wintry weather will move back in. The main concern for our region is the possible winter storm on Tuesday. Forecast models have showed a strong storm system affecting portions of the Midwest, South, and Central Plains for nearly a week now. The exact regions in which that area of low pressure effects have changed several times, which is a result of the track of the low being unknown at this time. While models have continued showing a storm system, they have disagreed on its track, and, consequently, where the wintry weather and snow sets up. The GFS takes the system to our south on its latest run, but it has shown snow for the Stateline multiple times.

The EURO model has the Stateline in the snowy section of this system. Therefore, it is nearly impossible to determine whether we will see a snowstorm, rain, or a mixture of both at this time. The models have to continue ironing out the kinks in the forecast before our confidence can go up for Tuesday's forecast. Sunday afternoon will be a time when we will likely have a better handle on this potential system. For now, it is something to monitor and follow.

No comments:

Post a Comment