Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Keeping an Eye on the Tropics

We are nearing the peak of hurricane season and have begun to notice an uptick in tropical activity over the past several weeks.  Low pressure associated with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey have formed near the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Current forecasts suggest that this low will be moving into an environment that will be a little more favorable for possible Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm development within the 24 to 48 hours.


Currently the low is moving to the northwest around 10 mph.  Even if development into a tropical system doesn't occur, the low will more than likely bring heavy rain and possible flooding for parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana as it slows down before reaching the coast. 


The image on the left is the projected 7-day rainfall totals for the United States.  Notice the significant amount of rainfall possible for Texas and other Gulf States, along with southern Florida.  Another low pressure system, while likely not developing into anything significant, will bring heavy rainfall to parts of Florida later this week.


How this low develops and tracks in the Gulf, and into the south, will also have an impact on our rain potential late this weekend and early next week.


Right now there will be a chance for rain Sunday through Tuesday, but the intensity of the rain will depend on how much moisture is pulled north from the Gulf. 







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