A strong low pressure system will move out of the northern Plains Wednesday evening and into Iowa and Wisconsin by Thursday afternoon. This will pull the current cold front moving through Wisconsin Wednesday evening, back north as a warm front during the day Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the warm front during afternoon, and then ahead of a cold front Thursday evening.
There is a marginal risk for some of the thunderstorms to turn strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail. Depending on how quickly clouds can fill in early in the day Thursday will determine just how unstable the atmosphere gets for the afternoon. Highest threat for strong thunderstorms will be closer tied to the passage of the low pressure system. And right now that could be over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This is where wind shear - change in wind speed/direction with height - will be the greatest.
Thunderstorms will come to end once the front passes, which will likely be after 10pm Thursday. Even though the risk for severe weather isn't overly high at the moment, the threat for severe weather is definitely there. Make sure you have a way to receive watches and warnings, and pay attention to the forecast if you're headed out to the Ogle County Fair.
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