More active and wet pattern to arrive this weekend

 Following a windy and chilly Halloween, high pressure will take over into the weekend. This will bring us more sunshine and slowly warming temperatures Friday and Saturday before rain chances arrive Sunday morning. Highs will be in the 50s Friday with another chilly night. Saturday will feature more sunshine with highs near 60, but rain will move in late and continue through much of Sunday.

We stay dry through much of Saturday night, but the first wave of steady showers will arrive Sunday morning, and last through the daytime hours. Temperatures Sunday will hold mostly steady in the 50s but will warm to the low 60s overnight as a warm front lifts through the region.

A much more favorable pattern for rainfall will develop early next week, with multiple rounds of rain possible between Saturday night and Tuesday. Some spots may even see upwards of 2-3" of rainfall all told. Highest confidence of rain throughout the day looks to be Sunday and Monday, with even some storms possible Monday evening and Monday night. Rain will come to an end behind our next cold front Tuesday evening.

Tonight's trick-or-treating weather forecast

 It has been a windy day in the Stateline with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph throughout much of the afternoon. The strongest wind gusts even reached 50 mph in some spots! As of 4:30PM, the current gusts were still around 40-45 mph for some.

This strong wind is helping to bring in a much cooler air mass for the evening, as temperatures are already in the 40s for most as of 4:30PM. Wind chill is playing a factor as well, with wind making it feel more like the 30s and low 40s.

Winds will remain strong through the evening, keeping a breezy and chilly feel to any trick-or-treating tonight. Temperatures will continue to fall, reaching the low 40s by 9PM. Wind chill will continue to make it feel colder, down in the 30s.

Wind advisory in place during trick or treat hours

Winds remain strong for the spooky holiday, though temperatures won't be nearly as warm. 

A potent cold front sliding through will be responsible for the morning chance for gusty showers as well as the strong winds and temperature decline that occurs this afternoon.

 

Gusts will be capable of reaching 45-50 mph, which has led to the issuance of a Wind Advisory. This is for Winnabago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, McHenry, and DeKalb County in northern Illinois as well as Walworth and Rock County in southern Wisconsin and will run from 10AM-10PM. Hold on to your hats, wigs, candy bags, and secure those Halloween decorations!

  

The change in wind that results from the frontal passage will allow temperatures to cool, landing most in the upper 40s and low 50s this evening. Factoring in the cool northwest wind, wind chills values will likely range from the upper 30s and low 40s during trick or treat hours. Be sure to bundle up underneath those incredible costumes! High pressure sliding in behind the departing front will help trade today's cloud cover for more sunshine. Winds stay out of the northwest, leaving highs in the low 50s.

Late Wednesday evening weather update

 

Radar late Wednesday evening continues to show showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to move across the region, but in an overall weakening trend. A few stronger storms remain downstate, closer tied to better instability and forcing. Further north, the storms have generally weakened but there still does remain the threat for a locally strong wind gust or two over the next few hours.

Most of the rain will be out before sunrise Thursday, but as the main cold front comes through a line of showers and gusty thunderstorms will be possible. Winds will then increase from the west, gusting to around 45 mph through the afternoon.

Chilly and windy Halloween for trick-or-treaters

 It was a windy day in the Stateline Wednesday, with more wind on the way. Winds could be even stronger Thursday, as a wind advisory goes into effect in the morning and lasts into the late evening. The advisory is out for counties along and East of I-39, including Winnebago and Boone Counties.

A cold front will pass early in the day, flipping wind direction to come more from the West than Southwest during the afternoon. Peak gusts could reach 40-45 mph at times, especially between late morning and mid-afternoon.

Temperatures will sharply fall behind the front, reaching the upper 50s by noon and 40s by the evening. Skies will gradually begin to clear following some morning showers, but that will allow temperatures to drop further. We will see overnight lows reach the mid-30s. Winds remain strong well beyond sunset, only calming to below 20 mph gusts after midnight. Make sure to have an extra layer for those trick-or-treaters!

Looking ahead to the first week of November, a much more favorable pattern for multiple rounds of rainfall looks to arrive starting Sunday. This will help close the gap on the growing rainfall deficits, as some locations may see well over an inch of rainfall.

Strong winds continue ahead of tonight's low severe threat

A warm robust wind and plenty of filtered sunshine Tuesday led to the Rockford Airport tying its record high temperature from 1922. 

Winds today will be just as strong, gusting up to 40 mph. This may lead to an elevated fire risk, though it doesn’t appear to be as high as it was yesterday as relative humidity will be slightly higher. This will also help us make another run at the 80° mark this afternoon, though cloud cover will be a bit more expansive. Also possible will be a sprinkle or shower in the afternoon and evening, especially in our westernmost areas.

From there, we will need to keep an eye on radar to the west as explosive shower and thunderstorm development occurs ahead of a cold front. Forecast models remain consistent, bringing this wave of precipitation in around midnight. Scattered showers will then linger into the early stages of Thursday, with chances shutting off before noon.

  

With the initial round, storms may sustain themselves enough to bring a low threat for severe weather. For that, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a Level 1, Marginal Risk. Gusty winds will be the main concern, though large hail and even an isolated tornado or two will be possible. Heavy rainfall is also a notable threat.

After the rain tapers off, winds will once again be the big story. As the cold front is sliding through, peak gusts could range from 35-45 mph, dropping to 25-35 mph once trick-or-treating commences. Temperatures will be dropping, landing close to the 50° mark. Of course, with a gusty wind in place, this will add more of a chill to the air. Those heading out for Halloween fun will need the jacket - and perhaps a heavier jacket to remain warm and insulated.

Strong winds continue Wednesday ahead of storms Wednesday night

 

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warmed well above the average high of 56 degrees, climbing all the way into the low 80s. Rockford's high temperature reached 81 degrees which tied the previous record for the 29th of October set all the back in 1922! Strong southerly winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s through the overnight.

Wednesday will be another warm and windy day as temperatures reach 80 degrees once again. Southwest winds will continue to gust around 35 mph, peaking near 40-45 mph at times through the afternoon. Skies will remain dry, but cloudy, as moisture slowly begins to work in from the west and southwest. This is ahead of a cold front that'll move across the Midwest and into the Stateline late Wednesday night.

The timing of the front has started to slow down which means it'll move through early Thursday morning, passing to our east by late morning. With the slower arrival of the front most of our Wednesday evening will remain dry.

A line of strong to severe storms will develop quickly to the west of the Mississippi River during the afternoon, shifting east through sunset. Highest instability remains west of the region, but increasing winds aloft as the front passes through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will keep the risk for damaging wind gusts overnight. This is why a 'marginal risk' is in place for the region Wednesday night. 

The line of storms will move into northwest Illinois between 8pm and 9pm, moving east through Midnight. There will be some showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning, but activity will move east through the morning. We may have to watch for a strong storm or two during the mid-morning hours, especially east of Rockford. 

West to northwest winds will increase behind the front causing temperatures Thursday to fall from the 60s during the morning, down into the 50s and then 40s by the evening. Winds will gust as high as 40 mph during the morning, but gusts around 35 mph can be expected through the afternoon. Temperatures will drop into the 30s Thursday night as high pressure moves in. Friday will be quite a bit cooler, but closer to average, with highs in the 50s.   

Red Flag Warning issued for some Tuesday

 

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the following counties Tuesday: Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside through 6pm. This has been issued due to the extreme fire danger across parts of the Midwest, including northwest Illinois.

Southwest winds have been gusting to 35 mph throughout much of the afternoon, but periodically gusts could reach as high as 40-45 mph. This combined with relative humidity values below 40 percent and extremely warm temperatures will create ideal conditions for fires to spread quickly. Do NOT do any outdoor burning and take extra caution if you're still out in the fields.

Winds will not ease much tonight with gusts still around 35-40 mph for some through Wednesday morning.

Dry, warm, and gusty conditions elevates fire danger into Tuesday evening

Rule of thumb, when your morning temperatures are starting out warmer than your average highs, that's a good indication a VERY warm day lies ahead! A strong southerly breeze overnight left temperatures roughly 10° to 15° above late-October standards, leaving most in the upper 60s.

Southwest winds will pick up as we find ourselves in between an departing high pressure system and a strengthening low to the west. Peak winds could be as high as 45 mph. This strong wind, along with partial sunshine will bring afternoon highs to late-June standards, landing in the low 80s. As previously stated, we will likely either tie or break our record high of 81° set back in 1922. 

With winds this strong and temperatures this warm, it's going to be important to avoid any plans to burn as we are under an elevated fire risk through Tuesday evening. Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, and McHenry County have been placed under a special weather statement for said risk. Areas to our south and east have a higher risk for extreme fire behavior, hence the Red Flag Warning. 

Cloud cover and a warm wind remain in place tonight into Wednesday, leaving lows in the upper 60s. In a similar fashion to today, this well-above average base will help afternoon temperatures surge into the upper 70s, close to the 80 mark. 

Towards Wednesday evening, all eyes will be on a wave of showers and thunderstorms that will spark up along a cold front to our west. Forecast models bring this swath of rain to the Stateline a little after sunset, with chances continuing into Halloween.

One or two of these thunderstorms may become strong enough for a low severe threat. In their latest outlook for Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas west of Rockford, Dixon, and Amboy under a level 1 Marginal Risk, mainly for damaging straight-line winds. 

Rain chances in general will come to an end prior to the midday hours, leaving behind cloud cover, and a cool wind out of the northwest. This will help cool temperatures into the 40s around the time kids head out for trick or treating. Those heading out for Halloween fun will need the jacket - and perhaps a heavier jacket - as the chill will really begin to set in towards evening.

Storm chances return Wednesday evening

 

After several dry and warm days, it looks like the chance for rain and thunderstorms will return with the arrival of a cold front late Wednesday night, a few of which could be on the stronger side. Conditions will remain dry - outside of a small chance for an isolated shower late morning Wednesday - as temperatures warm back near 80 degrees. Southwest winds will be gusty, nearing 40-45 mph throughout the afternoon.

A cold front moving in from the west will bring the highest threat for severe thunderstorms across parts of the Plains and Mississippi River Valley during the afternoon and early evening. It's in these areas where instability and forcing will be the highest. As the front nears the Mississippi River Wednesday evening it'll be moving into an environment with a little less instability, however, winds aloft will be increasing.

This may work to keep at least a small risk for a strong to severe wind gust with any of the storms that move through after 9pm locally Wednesday night. That threat will decrease the further east the front moves through Thursday morning.

A 'marginal risk' for severe weather is currently in place for areas along and west of I-39 through Wednesday night. While the threat is low, it is still best to make sure you stay weather aware as these late season, fall storm systems can give us some surprises.  

Gusty winds and cooling temperatures expected Halloween

 

A strong southwest wind will blow both Tuesday and Wednesday warming temperatures into the low 80s Tuesday afternoon, and near 80 degrees Wednesday. Tuesday's high of 82 degrees would break the record high for the 29th of October, which is currently 81 set in 1922! The record high for Wednesday, the 30th, is 83 set back in 1950.

This warmth will be followed by a rather sharp drop in temperatures throughout the day Thursday as a strong cold front moves across the Stateline during the morning. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures are likely to still be in the 60s Thursday morning as what is known as a 'dry slot' moves across the region. Once the colder air begins to settle in temperatures will start to fall through late morning.

By the afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s, dropping into the 40s by 4pm/5pm. At the same time, northwest winds will be gusting around 30 mph. This will make it feel rather chilly, especially following the summer-like warmth Tuesday and Wednesday. Those heading out for Halloween fun will need the jacket - and perhaps a heavier jacket - as the chill will really begin to set in towards evening.

Winds will ease a little Thursday night allowing overnight lows to dip into the low 30s. We'll see a return of sunshine Friday, but highs will only be in the 50s for the afternoon. 

  

Strong winds to bring record warmth, elevated fire risk Tuesday

Strong winds will be the big story the next few days, helping conjure up unseasonably warm temperatures and an elevated fire risk. 

Monday begins with lots of clouds and a light wind out of the south. This has left temperatures roughly 5 to as much as 15° warmer compared to early Sunday, in the upper 30s and low 40s. 

 

Southerly winds pick up as we find ourselves in between an exiting high pressure system and a developing low to the west. Winds could gusts as high as 30 mph this afternoon, leaving highs in the upper 60s. Flow remains rather strong overnight, allowing low temps to only fall to the 60° mark. 

Winds will become more impactful Tuesday as peak gusts could be as high as 45 mph. The combination of that along with the filtered sunshine will bring highs into the low 80s. As of this moment, our forecast high is 82. This is 1° above our record high for October 29th which was set back in 1922. Either way, we will likely tie or break Tuesday's record high, though fall short of Wednesday's record by a few degrees. Still, we can expect this warm wind to continue, landing highs in the upper 70s Wednesday. 

The heat doesn't last long however as a rather strong cold front slides through. Accompanying the frontal passage will be the chance for rain, with a shot at widespread rainfall and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Showers look to come to an end prior to the midday hours on Halloween, leaving behind a dry but chilly outlook for trick-or-treaters. Temperatures will peak in the lot mid 50s before falling into the 40s as kids make their out the door.

Windy and warm this week ahead of a cooler Halloween

 The big story in the forecast this week is going to be the strong winds for much of the early half of the week. Peak wind gusts tomorrow will be around 25-30 mph from the South, while Tuesday and Wednesday could feature Southwesterly gusts near 35-45 mph. If confidence in the higher gusts were to grow, a wind advisory could be possible Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

These strong winds will also lead to an elevated fire risk each of those days, but particularly Monday and Tuesday. Strong wind gusts near 30-45 mph at times, along with very warm and dry conditions will cause brush and field fires to spread quickly and be difficult to contain. Avoid outdoor burning and use caution around anything that could cause sparks such as farm equipment!

Unseasonable warmth doesn't even begin to describe the summer-like feel we will have this week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures will reach near 80°, while overnight lows will be in the 60s. We could be looking at a few broken records for afternoon highs and warm overnight lows. Tuesday's forecast high of 81° would tie the daily record set in 1922, while both overnight lows may break records Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

 

This near-record warmth will be followed by rain showers Wednesday afternoon through the overnight. A few showers could have some embedded thunderstorms as well. Heavy rain may be possible at times, with some locations likely to see near an inch of rainfall. Showers will be quick to clear, moving out by the afternoon of Halloween (Thursday).

Those showers will be on the way out through the morning, but one thing that is more certain is the cool-down to follow. Temperatures Thursday will be a far cry from the record warmth from the days before, as the high on Halloween will be in the low to mid-50s with gradual clearing by the evening. Late-night trick or treaters should expect dry, but chilly weather into Thursday night.

Sunday morning weather update

 The past few days along the state line have begun to feel a bit more fall like even with temperatures still being above average. After this weekend's quick cooler pattern, temperatures look to again shoot back up into the 70's and even 80's by the beginning of next week!

After today, surface high pressure will begin to slide east allowing low pressure to the west to begin to slide east. Accompanying that low pressure will be a strong upper-level shift in the jet stream pattern allowing winds to shift more southerly through the night Sunday night into Monday morning. This will bump temperatures up slightly Monday, but the big flash of warmer temperatures will begin to move in Tuesday into Wednesday.

This warmup will be fueled by a process known as warm air advection which to put simply is the transport of warmer and often moist air. This process often happens ahead of low pressure as different levels of pressure are stacked up together allowing quicker wind speeds and with these winds ahead of low pressure being southerly, this transports warm and moist air from the south.

This warm air advection will begin early Monday morning although low pressure won't begin to slide in until Tuesday whereby that point advection, and temperatures will be at their highest. Accompanying that as often with low pressure will be some stronger wind gusts through that time.

Advection as explained is fueled by strong wind gusts so accompanying our warmer advection will be strong southerly wind. Winds will increase up until Tuesday with sustained winds staying over 15 mph through the next three days with gusts peaking at least 30 mph. Although windy, these southerly winds won't feel as bad as they'll be transporting warmer air with a warmer feel to those gusts.

This pattern will stick around until Wednesday when warm air advection transports pretty significant moisture ahead of a cold front that will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Along that cold front with the available moisture, a line of at least showers and possibly thunderstorms look to develop bringing another chance for some measurable rainfall through the night. After that cold front temperatures will drop back into the 50's once again until yet another shift in upper-level winds bring us some southerly flow once again bumping up temperatures by next weekend. 

Near record warmth and windy weather this week

 Winds are set to ramp up in a big way this week, as gusts could approach 30-45 mph at times Monday through Wednesday. If wind confidence in the upper range of gusts increases for Tuesday, we could see a wind advisory issued. This wind will also increase the field fire risk, given the dry air that will accompany it, especially Monday and Tuesday.

Strong winds from a South or Southwesterly direction not only bring in much drier air, but also much warmer air. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s Monday, but near the 80-degree mark Tuesday and Wednesday. If we hit 81° Tuesday, that would tie a record high for that date set back in 1922. We will also see very mild overnight lows, only dropping to the 60s Monday and Tuesday nights.

The tail end of this weather system will also bring a healthy dose of rain showers with it. Most of the rain looks to fall Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours, but we could see some spotty showers linger into Thursday morning (Halloween). Stay tuned!