9:30am: A weak front will pass through later this afternoon and evening and could bring a little drizzle along with it during the afternoon but also the chance for freezing drizzle/wintry mix towards evening. Once this passes to the east late Thursday the next system will slide to the south of us Thursday night into Friday.
A strong low currently off the western coast of Baja California will get caught up in the southern jetstream later this afternoon and evening and move into the southern Plains Thursday. The past couple of days the general agreement on the track has been for the low to pass through Oklahoma and into southern Illinois by Thursday night before tracking into the Ohio River Valley Friday morning. With this, the track would remain too far to the south to bring us any significant accumulating snowfall, however, I'm not going to remove the snow chances just yet. Now that this system is just beginning to move onshore we're going to have a better sample of it with our upper air data. (Remember, there is a lack of weather data over the oceans) I do think that there could be a little further northward track with the low and that's why I'm hanging on to the snow possibility.
Something else we'll watch for is the chance for severe weather Thursday afternoon/evening through Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has even highlighted some of those areas with a moderate risk! The surface low will deepen as the upper level low moves through increasing moisture return ahead of it. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of Texas and likely intensify as they move east with the low and warm front during the afternoon and evening. Tornadoes, possibly strong ones, and damaging winds will be possible with some of the more intense storms.
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