Potential Storm System Next Week

As we enter an extended period of dry and cool weather, it is easy to look ahead at when the next storm system will affect the region. So, looking ahead at the next seven days, that system will move in on Wednesday and Thursday in the form of rain, strong winds, and potentially some thunderstorms. Over the past few days, forecast models have continued to suggest a low pressure develop in Oklahoma and move northeast towards the Stateline while deepening and strengthening at the same time.

In association with a deepening low pressure system is moderate to even heavy rain and possibly some thunderstorms for the area and surrounding states. The two main long range forecast models were in disagreement regarding the placement and movement of that low, but the most recent runs of those models have shown a better agreement between them, which is a good sign for forecasters because it allows us to create forecasts with better accuracy and reliability. Therefore, as opposed to being "unsure" of the timing of the rain for next week, it appears pretty likely that the rain and possibly even thunderstorms will move in Wednesday afternoon and last through Thursday late morning before leaving a few scattered showers behind on Friday.

The area in darker green is the concentrated region of heaviest rainfall for this system, an area that could see well over an inch of rainfall before all is said and done. Not only will the rain be heavy, but the winds will pick up Thursday as the low pressure deepens and moves overhead.

This type of pattern is very typical for this time of the year. Having a streak of nice, dry, and mild days followed by a strong storm system that brings a decent rainfall and colder air is not abnormal for October and November as the wintertime cold tries to win the battle against the remaining warm air in place.