Rain Thursday - Thunder Possible, Too

Not only could Thursday bring rain, but it may also bring a few thunderstorms into the night.  We typically don't think of thunderstorms in November, but it's possible.  Especially after several warm days in a row.

A change in the jet stream pattern that is currently bringing snow to the west will take us from the 70's back down to the 50's, more typical for this time of year, by the end of this week.  In between, rain will fall Thursday night.  But it's not only the drops of rain we could hear Thursday.  There is a possibility of thunderstorms Thursday evening into Thursday night.

Most of Thursday will remain dry, but clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon.  Dew point temperatures Wednesday reached the upper 50's to near 60 degrees.  That's pretty high for this late in the season.

As a cold front moves in from the west, showers/storms will occur west of the Mississippi River.  Very strong winds in the jet stream will help drive storms possibly from Iowa down south through Texas during the afternoon.

The actual cold front doesn't pull through until Thursday night in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, which is a limiting factor for our thunderstorm potential.  However, those strong winds in the jet stream continue into the night.  That may be just enough to sustain a few stronger storms in the area late Thursday evening.  Even though the probability is low, should thunderstorms develop strong winds would be a very good possibility.  A scenario we often refer to as a 'high shear, low CAPE' environment.  The wind shear in the atmosphere, or changing of wind speed and/or direction from the surface above, will be very high.  But the CAPE, or available energy needed for strong storms, will be low.  It's often set ups like this we have to pay close attention to because we're not expecting any severe weather.