Severe Threat Shifts Northward

We've been posting and updating the past few days as more information comes together on a potent low pressure system that will bring rain and strong winds on Veteran's Day.

Many of the forecast details have stayed the same, though there have been some slight changes. The strong low pressure system will eject out of Colorado into the Great Plains on Wednesday. As the low pressure approaches Missouri, along with very strong winds aloft, storms will begin to fire up along the low pressure's cold front. The orange shade that you see includes portions of Missouri, southern Iowa, and western and southern portions of Illinois. This is the area where all of the thunderstorm 'ingredients' gel the most. This area has the greatest CAPE or energy for the storms to tap into, shear (winds changing direction with height), moisture, and lift. Because of all of these things coming together stronger storms are likely in this areas. Biggest concerns will be hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and even a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible.

However, all of these ingredients are not in place for the Stateline area. Moisture values won't be as high across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Also, with storms arriving in the evening for us, we don't get the peak heating of the sun, which we need to generate more instability. There should be just enough instability to hear some rumbles of thunder, though the bigger threat we will be watching for will be very strong winds gusts. As showers, and a few thunderstorms move through late Wednesday, winds have the potential to reach strong, and possibly severe levels. Gusting upwards of 50mph in the storm system; though outside the heavy rain, strong winds will also be possible. Winds Wednesday night will gust close to 35-40mph. Any rain and storms we see will quickly move to the north east. Showers will be possible through early Thursday morning as the low pressure departs with the cold front. However, despite the lack of rain, wind gusts will still be strong behind the cold front. Winds will gust upwards of 45mph Thursday morning. Currently there are no wind advisories in place for the Stateline, though there very well could be. Driving at times in the morning will be difficult, especially on N-S roads.

The First Warn Weather Team has been tracking this system, and will continue to track and update you on this system as more information becomes available. Be sure to check back for more updates!