Wednesday Weather Update

A deep low pressure system has already dumped snow in Colorado and western Nebraska, as well as brought high wind gusts, and is now currently in Kansas. An area of storms has already developed in the colder area just ahead of it. Dew points are already rising into the 50's ahead of the low pressure, in Iowa and Missouri. This narrow band of moisture will move northeast later this evening. With increasing moisture and a strong focused jet in the Iowa/Missouri area, instability is                                                                                                       
growing. Because this area has increasing instability, along with high wind shear, and higher amounts of available energy, it has a much higher threat for strong to severe storms. This is also the area already highlighted in orange indicating an enhanced risk for strong storms, as well as a Tornado Watch in effect until 6pm in the yellow highlighted area on the second map in Iowa and Missouri. Later today, storms will form and start off as strong individual cells (which are more capable of producing tornadoes) before they then congeal into a line where then straight line winds become more of a concern.

For the Stateline, the entire area is under a slight risk for strong storms. Our biggest threat is strong straight line winds and heavy rain fall. The tornado threat is non-zero, but it is low, with better dynamics and timing featured to the southwest of the Stateline. Areas to the west and south of Rockford do have a slightly higher threat for stronger winds as well, near the Polo, Dixon, and Sterling areas. We will mostly see strong straight line winds come through with a line of showers and a few embedded storms. Even if you don't hear thunder or see lightning, very strong wind gusts are still possible. The timing for the rain comes in around sunset, with the rain crossing the Mississippi around 5/6pm and then will move closer to the Rockford area around 7/8pm this evening. These showers will be very fast movers, and will track from the southwest to the northeast tonight. While the rain won't last long into Thursday, the wind will.



A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 6pm this evening and will last through 6pm Thursday evening.
Wednesday afternoon: Winds will pick up from the southeast and gust at 35-40mph.
By Wednesday night: Wind gusts will continue from the southeast, but will be higher at 40-45mph.
Thursday morning: Winds will shift to the west and have to potential to gust around 45-50mph, and higher at times!
Driving will be difficult on north/south roads Thursday morning, so you will want to use a lot of caution, especially if you are in a high profile vehicle.

Friday will continue to be a windy day, with a chilly northerly wind at 35 mph. As a secondary low pressure moves through, winds will make the high temperatures in the 40's feel like the 30's for most of the day. Some snow flurries will also be possible Friday morning.

Make sure to keep checking back for more updates, and tune in tonight at 5pm and 6pm with Chief Meteorologist Candice King!