Winter Storm Update: Friday Evening

 10:45 UPDATE:

The radar has shown moderate to heavy snow for several hours now, especially within a heavy convective band that set up along the Wisconsin-Illinois border south to I-90. Locations within that band have seen 8-12" of snowfall already this evening with plenty more to fall tonight into Saturday morning. Other regions have seen anywhere from 2-5" of snow as the snowfall hasn't been as persistent or heavy because of the lack of a heavy band setting up. A few snowfall totals that we have received thus far tonight:

These totals are as of 10pm and they will all continue to climb as moderate to heavy snow will last through the night. Therefore, some areas could pick up over a foot of snow when all is said and done if they remain within a heavier band for long enough. That is what we were discussing all week long was the banding of the snow causing heavier amounts in certain areas. It is very difficult to nearly impossible to decipher where the heaviest snow and heavier snow bands will set up when it comes to forecasting snowfall accumulations. Forecast models have a difficult time with this, and they usually don't show where the heavier bands will set up when they spit out their respective snowfall accumulation total forecasts. That is why we kept mentioning that some areas will see much more than others depending on where those convective snowfall bands set themselves up. For this particular event, it happened to include Machesney Park, Loves Park, Roscoe, Rockton, Beloit, Rockford, Poplar Grove, among others. Locations such as DeKalb, Sterling and Dixon have not seen nearly as much snowfall with some reports of less than three inches near those cities. That is due to the lack of a legitimate snow band setting up down there. Those locations have been getting less consistent snow that has been falling at a much lighter clip. That is why we have such a large range of totals thus far.

Here is the updated forecast totals map by the time the storm comes to an end tomorrow afternoon. I added in the possibility of seeing a foot or more of snowfall within that darker blue shade because of that persistent band of snow that has been around this evening.

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Snow has overspread much of the Stateline this evening as moderate to even heavy snow has begun to fall, especially from Oregon and points to the north. As of 6:00pm, Freeport has already received 1.8" of snowfall. With temperatures already at or below freezing, the snow will continue to stick as the overall intensity continues to increase tonight. I expect moderate to heavy snowfall to last throughout the entire night and into Saturday morning before the low moves far enough to the east and takes the heaviest snow with it. There will be travel headaches from this evening through Saturday evening as plenty of snow looks to accumulate. If you must be out during this storm, there are some things to remember:

A Winter Storm Warning will remain in place through 3PM Saturday afternoon with the anticipation of seeing more than a half-foot of snowfall by the time all is said and done. That warning includes all of our counties, but our western counties (Whiteside, Carroll, Jo Daviess, & Stephenson) will see that warning expire at noon Saturday.

Let's time the storm out in terms of when the heaviest snow will fall and when the risk will be the highest. As

of now it looks like the heaviest snow will fall from now through the night into tomorrow morning. By about 10am Saturday morning, the snow will decrease in intensity and begin to decrease in coverage. However, winds will turn blustery Saturday afternoon, and that will allow for some minor blowing snow to develop in the rural and flat areas across the region. The Weatherisk will be High during the event as snowfall will make traveling extremely dangerous and difficult, especially on the roadways that don't normally see as much attention from the snow plows and salt trucks.

Now how much snow are we going to see by the time all is said and done? Here are the totals I am currently predicting by Saturday afternoon:

Again, this will mainly fall this evening through Saturday late in the morning before dwindling to a few snow showers and snow flurries Saturday afternoon. As always, stay tuned to mystateline.com, the First Warn Weather Blog and Page, and social media for continued updates on the snow, travel conditions, and other weather-related issues.