Severe Weather Near Chicago Lakeshore

While Stateline residents "enjoy" a muggy-yet-quiet night, some parts of the Chicago area, Northwest Indiana, and Southeast Wisconsin are experiencing severe weather. The warm front that cleared the Stateline area late this afternoon got hung-up over Lake Michigan's cool water late this afternoon and evening. The warm front combined with a lake breeze created some extra lift in the atmosphere for some severe weather just to our east.

Five miles west-southwest of downtown Chicago, baseball size hail was reported at Kedzie Ave. and W 26th Street! Five miles northwest of downtown Chicago, 1.75" hail was reported, 1.25" hail was reported in Chicago's Lakeview neighborhood, and nickel hail was reported near Erving and Lake Shore Drive. A waterspout was actually sighted about 9 miles offshore from Zion, IL, and an 81 mph gust was recorded 4 miles northeast of downtown Chicago!

Northwest Indiana and southeast Wisconsin also had some impressive severe weather reports. Lake Station and Portage, IN both reported 1" diameter hail. Meanwhile Kenosha, WI recorded a 75 mph wind gust.

Tropical Storm Arlene Soon to be a Depression

Tropical Storm Arlene has been dumping heavy rains along Mexico's northern Gulf coast and is currently centered 65 miles SSW of Tampico, MX. Heavy rain has been the main headline with this storm; another 15" of rain is expected to fall in parts of interior central Mexico!


It's also been impacting southern Texas... Brownsville had more than 3" of rain today.

Arlene is barely hanging on to tropical storm status. It currently has 40mph maximum sustained winds, which is near the very bottom of tropical storm status. Arlene will continue to weaken as it moves west-southwestward over Mexico's mainland, and should become a tropical depression within the next few hours.

Heat Advisory Issued

11:00am Update:  Heat Advisory now issued for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties from Noon Friday through Midnight.

The Excessive Heat Watch that had been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties yesterday has been replaced by a Heat Advisory for Friday afternoon and evening.  The Heat Advisory also extends into Wisconsin and covers Green, Rock and Walworth counties. 

A Heat Advisory also extends through the upper Midwest while Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for sections of Missouri.  While we won't see triple digit heat like our neighbors to the west will, temperatures will rise into the middle, and possibly upper 90s, by Friday afternoon.  Along with the rising temperatures dew points will rise into the low 70s creating a fairly humid atmosphere.  Heat Index values could reach 100° or better during the afternoon.  Even though the rest of northern Illinois isn't under any heat headlines just yet (those counties are handled under a different weather service) it's still going to be very humid out.  The heat will continue through the weekend before we return back to average by the middle of next week.

Excessive Heat Watch for Stephenson County

The National Weather Service out of the Quad Cities has issued an Excessive Heat Watch for Stephenson county and the counties bordering the Mississippi River for Friday from 10am to 10pm. As of now, we're forecasting a high in the middle-90s on Friday. However, with dewpoints climbing into the 70s we will be experiencing heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees in most areas across the Stateline. To avoid a heat-related illness, drink plenty of water, exercise in the morning when temperatures are at their coolest, seek an air-conditioned environment, and take frequent breaks if you must work outside during the afternoon.

For now, the other Stateline counties are not under this Excessive Heat Watch. But we will let you know if that changes as very hot and humid conditions are expected across the entire area.

Fourth of July Forecast

All eyes will be focused on the forecast for this weekend as we get ready to celebrate the Fourth of July.  And while it won't be a complete washout, a weak cool front that will pass through late Friday will become 'hung up' somewhere across the Great Lakes this weekend keeping isolated storm chances going through next Tuesday.

We've been talking about the heat expected by the end of this week for the past several days as a big ridge of high pressure, currently in the west, begins to move over the center of the U.S.  This will cause temperatures to soar into the middle 90s with dew points in the low 70s during Friday afternoon.  A pretty significant area of low pressure moving down the west coast will help to flatten the ridge some heading into this weekend.  As the jet stream flattens a weak cool front will slide through but because of the zonal (west to east) flow behind it, it's not going to have much push to move it too far to our south.  It also appears that high pressure in the mid-levels will remain in the southeast helping to block the front.  Southerly winds south of the jet stream will continue to pull gulf moisture northward and if we remain on the southern edge of the jet stream, it could mean a fairly hot and sticky weekend.  It would also mean the storm track would probably remain to the north.  I wouldn't cancel any plans you have just yet because right now the storm chances look isolated and I do anticipate most of this holiday weekend to remain dry.  Of course as the fourth gets closer, we'll be able to time out the rain chances for you.

First Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Arlene continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico and will make landfall in eastern Mexico within the next day.  Current maximum winds are at 40 mph with a movement to the west/northwest around 8 mph.  Arlene is forecast to turn a little more towards the west, or even south of west later today as Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the coast of Northeastern Mexico.  Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main concerns along the coast.  No impacts from Arlene are expected in the United States.

A Short Heat Wave Coming?

As we've been talking about for the last four days, some very hot weather is on its way to the Stateline. Friday looks to be the hottest day at this point with a high of 95 degrees. A ridge of high pressure will build over the central US creating subsidence; a condition where air sinks from aloft to the surface, thereby reducing cloud cover and causing the atmosphere to warm by compression. A southerly flow at the surface will also create uncomfortably high humidity levels, and the combination of heat and humidity could cause heat indices to climb to advisory levels on Friday.

The 6 to 10 day outlook produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC, above-left) suggests this heat wave will be short-lived. After only slight cooling with more cloud cover Saturday and Sunday, a cold front will come through sometime on the 4th of July. This will signal a cooling trend that will bring our 6 to 10 day average to near-normal levels.

Tropical Cyclone Brewing in the Atlantic Basin?

The National Hurricane Center is giving a 50% chance of a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next day or so.  The upper level winds appear to become a little more conducive for development as high pressure remains across the Gulf of Mexico.

Currently the low is moving to the west/northwest around 5 to 10 mph and an Air Force Reserve Unit hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate this area later this afternoon, should it remain necessary.  Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue over eastern Mexico for the next couple of days.

Comfortable today and tomorrow; Hot and humid by the end of the week

Canadian high pressure just to our west will leave us with a northwest breeze, low dew points and lots of sunshine on this Tuesday afternoon.  Highs will reach 80° today and 83° Wednesday.  The comfortable weather, however, won't last as the heat that has been building in the southwest and southern Plains begins to build north and northeast Thursday and Friday.  A warm front will lift through the Midwest Thursday afternoon which may bring an isolated storm or two, but the big story will be the warm up expected, especially into Friday.  Triple digit heat will be felt across the Plains while we'll reach the middle 90s by Friday.

Still a Chance of Storms This Afternoon

4:15pm Update:
Significant cloud cover late this morning and this afternoon have kept the Stateline rather stable and un-primed for severe thunderstorm development. Severe storms appear more likely in Wisconsin where better wind shear and mid-level energy reside. Similarly, the atmosphere looks more supportive of severe weather in central and southern Illinois than it does here. An isolated shower or storm is still possible through about 8pm, then a cold front will come through bringing an end to our storm chances.

A cold front stretches southeast from a low over central Minnesota late this morning across eastern Iowa, and then swings back to the southwest just north of Kansas City. A warm front lines up from north of La Cross, Wisconsin. to near Madison to just south of Milwaukee.  There are thunderstorms southeast of St. Louis, and north of Duluth.  There isn't any activity to our west... ahead of the cold front as of 10:40 am CDT.  The clouds are thinning, and the storm prediction center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.  Because of the thunderstorm complexes that rolled through the mid west early this morning, the atmosphere has stabilized for the time being, but multiple outflow boundaries were laid down by the passing storms that will serve as focal points for convection though the afternoon as the atmosphere heats up and destabilizes.  The exact firing places where the storms will fire are difficult to pinpoint at this time. Just keep in mind that severe thunderstorms could develop quickly this afternoon.  Whatever storms that do develop will end early this evening with the passage of the cold front. Skies will become mostly clear tonight with a fairly brisk northwest breeze.  Tuesday will be a fabulous day with blue skies, lower humidity, and a comfortable afternoon high temperature around 80 degrees.  It will warm up a few degrees on Wednesday, and it will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will heat up into the upper 80's on Thursday, and be down right hot and humid on Friday with a high around 93 degrees.

Slight Risk for Monday

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has issued a slight risk for severe storms across much of the Midwest tomorrow, including the Stateline area. A warm front lifting into the area will initially bring a chance of mainly non-severe storms in the morning. After the warm front passes and we have the opportunity to de-stabilize with the heating of the day, another round of storms will develop in the afternoon. How volitile these storms become depends on the amount of sunshine we see during the morning and early afternoon before a cold front reaches the area. Cloudiness from tonight's convection in Iowa and Nebraska may hang over the Stateline tomorrow. If it does, we won't be as unstable during the afternoon and severe storms may not develop here.

If severe storms do develop, however, they could produce quarter-size hail or larger along with winds in excess of 60mph.

Nusiance Shower...Maybe a Thunderstorm on Sunday

High pressure is sitting over lower Michigan tonight.  Low pressure is over the Oklahoma panhandle, and a stationary front snakes eastward across Kansas, southern Missouri, and southeast through Tennessee.  Warm moist air from the Gulf is riding up and over the front, and may generate a few showers overnight, and there is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Under mostly cloudy skies the temperature will top out in the upper 70's.  A warm front will advance into central Illinois by late Sunday night giving the Stateline a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. With that system gathering energy and moisture, there could be some severe thunderstorms on Monday with damaging winds and large hail.  The storms will come to an end on Monday night with a drier air mass from the Rockies pushing into Illinois. The high pressure will move into Minnesota on Tuesday giving northern Illinois sunny and pleasant weather on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures in the upper 70's along with comfortable humidity levels. By Thursday the high will have shifted all the way east to Buffalo, N.Y., and a strong warm front will be approaching from the plains.  The high on Thursday will be around 87 degrees, and on Friday, hot and humid air will make for a very steamy day with a high around 95 degrees, and heat index's likely to be above 100.  On Saturday a cool front will approach, and thunderstorms will be possible.

Minot Flooding Continues

From Accuweather.com:

June 24 update
The river rose another foot since Thursday morning, putting the water just a foot away from the record set in 1881.

The water levels of the Souris River upstream from Minot at Sherwood have stayed steady since Thursday.

June 23, 2011

Problems continue in Minot, N.D., late this week as river levels keep rising.

Thursday morning, the Souris River at Minot was more than 6 feet above its normal level. The river water needs to rise only 2 more feet to beat the historical record set in 1881.

Likely, the flooding will break the record. National Weather Service data predicts that waters could rise another 7 feet by Monday.
The river crested upstream from Minot at Sherwood Thursday morning.

The National Guard helped evacuate around 10,000 residents of the town yesterday, a quarter of the people that live there.

The flooding along the Souris River is separate from the Missouri River flooding. The Souris River flows southward from Saskatchewan, Canada into North Dakota then loops around into southern Manitoba, Canada, sending water toward Winnipeg.

Above-normal rainfall across Saskatchewan and North Dakota caused the flooding, and heavy spring snowmelt also contributed.

Estevan, Saskatchewan, located upstream along the Souris, has received more than double the yearly rainfall in the past six months.

The Mouse River at Sherwood, N.D., located upstream from Minot, already surpassed the record flood stage by more than a foot. According to the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, the depth of the river at Sherwood covers the entire surrounding valley with floodwater.


In order to mitigate the flooding downstream, the Army Corps of Engineers has been releasing water at Lake Darling Reservoir at a rate of approximately 8,000 cubic feet per second. The rate of outflow of water will increase over the next couple of days, enough so that Lake Darling may be emptied.


Even with these attempts to lessen the impacts of flooding, the river is expected to rise a couple of feet above the record flood stage of 38 feet at Minot.

Still Cool Today... Warmup for the Weekend...Heat by End of Next Week.

The slow moving massive closed low that spread a blanket of clouds across the area for the past couple of days is finally moving on out of the picture.  It is located in Canada just north of Lake Huron this morning.  One last disturbance rotating around the low has caused some sprinkles and slight rain showers this morning as it drops southeast across extreme northwest Illinois.  Those showers and sprinkles are moving toward the south/southeast, and  will be out of the area later this morning.  Following the disturbance skies are clearing across northwestern Wisconsin, so the Stateline may see some sun later this afternoon. With the cool northwest air flow continuing, the high temperatures across the area will only be in the low 70's.   High pressure located near Sioux Falls, South Dakota will move across the area tonight clearing skies. Overnight temperatures will drop to the middle 50's, and perhaps a little lower in spots.  By Saturday morning the high will be over Indiana, the wind will swing around to the southeast, and skies will be mostly sunny.  Clouds will increase, though, during the afternoon as a warm front stretching from southern Missouri to just south of Kansas City, and arcs across Kansas to a low over the Oklahoma panhandle.  A thunderstorm complex will be ongoing in the early morning from eastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa into northern Missouri.  That complex will drop toward the southeast, and not affect the Stateline on Saturday.  The front is expected to get a good push toward the north on Sunday, and  approach the Stateline by daybreak on Monday.  Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase with the approach of the front on Sunday night, and continue off and on until the passage of a cold front moving in from the west early Monday night.  High pressure will take control of the weather on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures in the low 80's.  High pressure will build into the mid west at the surface and aloft, and the heat will build so that by Thursday, high temperatures will be up around 90 degree.  The National Weather Service's longer range forecast is indicating good chances for and extended period of  hot weather starting of the first week of July.

Tornado at Churchill Downs

From NOAA:

This afternoon, the National Weather Service confirmed a tornado hit Churchill Downs in Louisville Wednesday afternoon, damaging five barns and buckling cinder block walls. Tornado experts said the tornado was an EF-2 (winds near 120 mph) for part of its 1.2-mile damage path, and was at EF-1 level (100-105 mph winds) as it moved through Churchill Downs.

For more information, click here.

Unusually Cool

A large closed low with an impressive circulation is located over northern Lake Michigan, and is moving slowly eastward.  A vort max is dropping southeast from southeastern Minnesota toward southern Wisconsin this afternoon.  This system will be effective in keeping continuous cloud cover across the Stateline this afternoon.  There will be sprinkles and light rain showers from time to time that will be enhanced this afternoon as the vort max drops into southern Wisconsin.  Still, precipitation amounts should be minor, not amounting to more than a few hundredths of an inch in most cases, and even where heavier precipitation develops not more than 0.20" should occur.  The cloud cover will keep the temperatures in the 60's all day.  Tonight scattered showers will come to an end as the vorticity center shifts off to the east and drier air associated with weak high pressure over the plains begins to move into the mid west.  Friday should remain a mostly cloudy day, but with some peaks of sunshine, and clouds breaking up a little more by late in the day, the high temperatures will reach the low 70's.    High pressure from the plains will move into the Stateline on Saturday bringing warmer temperatures into the upper 70's under mostly sunny skies.  A warm front will develop eastward from low pressure over western Kansas by early Sunday and stretch from near Kansas City to the southern tip of Illinois.  Clouds will increase on Sunday as warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rides up and over the front building some scattered showers and thunderstorms into northern Illinois.  The warm front will move northward across the Stateline early on Monday bringing 80 degree plus temperatures back into the region, and continuing chances of showers and thunderstorms.   A cool front is expected to sweep across the area on Monday night with attending thunderstorms.  It will be partly cloudy on Tuesday, and mostly sunny on Wednesday with temperatures continuing to top out in the low to middle 80's.

Flood Overtopping Levees in Minot, ND

(6/22/2011 9:41:50 AM) nwsbot: BIS issues Flash Flood Warning for Ward [ND] till 3:30 PM CDT

At 9:30am the Minot Emergency Operations Center has reported levees beginning to overtop in parts of Minot.

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for residents along the Souris River through parts of Minot.  People in those locations are being told to move to higher ground immediately.  Flooding in other parts of Minot are expected as river levels continue to rise.

Cloudy, rainy and cooler weather today and tomorrow

The low that helped to ignite severe weather across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley yesterday continues to spin into Wisconsin this morning.  We had a brief dry period overnight as a mid-level dry slot moved into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Now, the moisture continues to wrap around the low this morning keeping the showers, clouds and wind with us both today and tomorrow.  Temperatures have been slow to rise and highs this afternoon will only reach the low 70s.  Assuming thick cloud cover is with us tomorrow (Thursday), highs will be lucky to reach the 70° mark!  Don't worry, though.  It does look like a warm up will be with us by the middle to end of next week.

Severe T'Storm Watch Cancelled

With the sun down for the night and more stable air moving into the area behind a cold front, the NWS has cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch for our area. Rest easy!

Tornado Warning - Eastern DeKalb

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
757 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DE KALB COUNTY...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 753 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.
THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5
MILES SOUTH OF CORTLAND TO LITTLE ROCK TO 6 MILES EAST OF NEWARK TO
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAZON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...

SYCAMORE...SUGAR GROVE...MORRIS AND MAZON AROUND 805 PM.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
BOULDER HILL...BURLINGTON...CARBON HILL...PINGREE GROVE...SOUTH
ELGIN...CRYSTAL LAWNS...CREST HILL...PRESTON HEIGHTS...GLENDALE
HEIGHTS AND GLENBARD SOUTH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. GO TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR!

Live Chat for Tuesday Severe Weather

Severe T'Storm Watch

Thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening and likely last through the 10pm hour.  While there have been no warnings, there are a few reports of funnels being spotted.  This is a possibility, but these will probably only last for a few minutes.  If you have any storm reports or pictures, please email them to: weather@wtvo.com 

The Entire Stateline viewing area is now under a severe thunderstorm watch until 1am. Storms developing ahead of a cold front that's pushing into Illinois right now could produce 1"+ hail and 60mph+ winds. There is also the possibility of an isolated tornado or two.

Watch Likely for Parts of Stateline

This discussion on a possible watch to be issued by the SPC out of Norman, OK:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0456 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IL...NRN AND CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212156Z - 212330Z
AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR IS AT LEAST MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPEST ACROSS THAT SAME REGION... BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS BECOME LARGE OVER MUCH OF OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.

A DEVELOPING COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS TO OVER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS INDIANA...AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE 00-02ZTIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...IN A SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF ILLINOIS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Storms Rapidly Developing to our Southwest

The NWS office in the Quad Cities just issued a special weather statement for the thunderstorms that are quickly developing west of Peoria. If these storms hold-together as they move northward, a watch could be issued for northern Illinois shortly. Here's the statement:

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WESTERN ILLINOIS...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED RAPIDLY FROM NEAR GALESBURG AND PEORIA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE SAINT LOUIS AREA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH AND WILL BE AFFECTING BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM.
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.

EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS...AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

Watch Possible later this Afternoon

2:15pm Update: Storms continue to move through north-central Illinois with the heaviest of the rain now in Boone and McHenry counties.  This will continue to lift north/northeast.  The rain has likely stabilized our atmosphere some, but there is a good amount of clearing just to our southwest.  A Tornado Watch has been issued for the counties just north of Green, Rock and Walworth in southern and central Wisconsin.  This is because the warm front there could provide additional instability to get storms to rotate.  For us, conditions will continue to be monitored for the potential of our atmosphere to recover (meaning the instability builds again) behind these storms. 

1:15pm Update: Storms continue to develop west of I-39 this afternoon and continue to move north.  Nothing severe is expected with these storms...you'll likely see a heavy downpour.

11:45am Update: A weather watch will likely be needed for parts of Wisconsin and Illinois later this afternoon.  Instability continues to rise through north-central Illinois and south-central Wisconsin. There have been a few pop up showers/storms that have formed late this morning. 

Currently watching a few that have popped south of Freeport near Shannon, Forreston and Chadwick.  These will become a little more numerous through the afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves out of Missouri.

The warm front stretches through southern Wisconsin as an area of low pressure sits in western Iowa.  The disturbance moving out of Missouri will help provide the lift needed to continue storm development as we go through the afternoon. Still looking at the potential for hail and damaging winds with these storms.  It would be right along the warm front where we would have to watch for the potential of rotating storms.

Welcome to Summer...Well at 12:16pm! :)

Summer will officially begin at 12:16pm and it sure will feel like it.  Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the middle and upper 80s and with dew points sitting in the upper 60s/low 70s it's going to feel pretty muggy out.

The sun rose at 5:20am and will set at 8:26pm.  After today, however, the days will be getting shorter and will continue through the fall.

Iowa storms fizzle; Could see a few more this afternoon

The massive storm system responsible for the severe weather yesterday across the Plains and Midwest begins its eastward movement this morning.  Through the overnight a line of storms in central Iowa prompted a Tornado Watch and even a few tornado warnings in Iowa.  As the line moved across the Mississippi River, it encountered a mid-level ridge which helped those storms fizzle out and move into Wisconsin. 

In the wake of those storms the skies are being to partially clear as copious amounts of moisture continue to stream in from the Gulf.  Simply put, the more sunshine we see later this morning and early afternoon, the greater our storm potential as a cold front sweeps across Iowa.  If sunshine is able to break out it would increase the amount of potential energy the storms would have to work with.  As of right now the greatest threat would mainly be damaging winds, although hail and even an isolated tornado (especially to the north) can't be ruled out.  If storms were to form I would expect them to form across sections of Minnesota and Iowa early this afternoon and shift northeast late this afternoon and evening.

We likely won't see an outbreak of severe weather like folks did yesterday because the upper level support will remain off to the west and northwest of the Stateline.  Our storm threat would come from the approaching cold front and any potential energy that is able to build later this afternoon.

Big storms likely to the west; Storm threat remains for us

6:45pm Update: Other than a passing shower or two, the rest of the evening should remain dry.  It likely won't be until later tonight and overnight that storms will move in.


The overnight showers continue to move east and should be clearing the Rockford area around Noon and by 1pm for locations to the east.  In looking at the latest visible satellite imagery this morning there has been some clearing taking place across Iowa and northern Missouri so I do anticipate some filtered sunshine in here later this afternoon.  The storms that moved through overnight have pushed the stationary boundary a little further south but it will begin to pull northward as a fairly strong mid-level jet max (area of stronger winds aloft) moves into Kansas and Nebraska by mid-afternoon.  This will cause a surface low to slowly move out of Kansas and likely cause storms to rapidly develop across eastern Nebraska/Kansas and western Iowa.  The greatest risk for severe storms remains across that area this afternoon where a few strong tornadoes could be possible.  For us, assuming we get enough sunshine here during the afternoon, the front would help provide some of the lift needed to get a few storms going late afternoon and into the early evening.  Gusty winds, hail and even heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for us. 

Rainy start this morning

10:30am Update: Back edge of the rain showers continue to fizzle and move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this morning.  Look for these to be out of the area around the Noon hour.  The clouds extending back through western Iowa have been thinning some and as an area of low pressure kicks out of central Kansas later this afternoon, this is likely where the stronger storms will develop.  If we manage to see sunshine through the afternoon it is possible that as the warm front lifts northward we could get a few stronger storms.  However, if we're slow to clear then our storm threat wouldn't be too significant.

7:30am Update: A warm front draped across southern Iowa and northern Illinois has been the focus for a few showers and even stronger storms this morning.  The heaviest of the rainfall has remained well south of the immediate Stateline where some locations have picked up over an inch or so of rain in a little over an hour. 

Now, showers will continue just to the south of the Wisconsin/Illinois border as they move east.  Some of the heavier rain is moving through Lee and DeKalb counties.  Some clearing is noted along the Mississippi River, but it's not too far behind that there is another area of showers moving into northeast Iowa.  Look for these showers to continue through this morning with a little clearing by early this afternoon.

Storms off and on through Tuesday Night... Then Showery and Cool

A stationary front is sitting across the Stateline area this evening. No widespread thunderstorm activity is expected tonight, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Any thunderstorms that develop overnight are expected to remain below severe limits. The ovenight low will be in the middle 60's with lots of humidity, and there could be some patchy fog after midnight. On Monday in will partly sunny with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. It will be a little uncomfortable with a dew point near 70 degrees and an afternoon high in the low to middle 80's. There is a slight chance that severe thunderstorms could develop. It will be warm and muggy on Monday night with scattered thunderstorms continuing. On Tuesday it will be very warm and humid with thunderstorms likely. Some of those thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front could become severe. Cooler air will move in behind the front on Wednesday, but because of a strong closed low swirling to our north, and the cold air aloft associated with it, there will be a continuing chance of showers from Wednesday into Friday. It will be chilly on Thursday with a high only around 68 degrees. Temperatures will moderate into next weekend under high pressure with mostly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday, and it will be very pleasant with high's in the middle 70's.

Father's Day Morning Weather Update

Storm Reports:
SSE Lena, Stephenson Co., Heavy rainfall - 2.20" in the past hour

2 miles NW Lena, Stephenson Co., Minor Flooding on roadways - low lying areas

1 mile S Lena, Stephenson Co., Heavy rainfall - 2.0" 

10:30am Update:  A thunderstorm with heavy rainfall is moving just west of Freeport this morning.  Rainfall rates of 1" to 2" per hour have been indicated by radar as well as public reports.  This storm is slowly drifting to the southeast and will be in the Freeport area within the hour.





A band of showers, and even a few rumbles of thunder, have formed this morning stretching from southern Wisconsin near Brodhead and Monroe into northwest Stephenson and Jo Daviess counties north of Highway 20.  These are slowly moving east.

Also noting a couple more showers popping up across eastern Ogle county south of Rockford.  Those, too, are moving to the east/northeast.  Watch for these showers/storms to sweep across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through the morning hours.

Daily Chances of Showers & Storms through Thursday

A nearly stationary front just to our south combined with a series of low pressure systems moving along it will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend and into Tuesday when a cool front will push through the area. Highs will be in the low 80's Sunday through Tuesday, and will drop into the 70's for the rest of the week.  Low pressure will be cut off as it moves slowly eastward across the area on Wednesday and Thursday causing some instability showers and thunderstorms.  Friday and Saturday will be comfortable under partly to mostly sunny skies along with afternoon temperatures in the middle 70's.

Pop up storms this evening

There have been a few pop up storms that have formed over southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois this evening ahead of a boundary moving through northeast Iowa.  I actually just heard some thunder here in Freeport.  While none of these storms are expected to be severe, heavy rainfall and maybe even small hail could be possible. -CK

Lightning Safety Awareness Week

The National Weather Service (NWS) and the Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA) are reminding people, "When thunder roars, go indoors," for this year's lightning safety awareness week June 19th-25th. About 55 people are killed and over 1,000 are injured each year across the U.S. by lightning, according to the NWS. Roughly two-thirds of those fatalities occur outdoors at recreational events and near trees. For safety tips, go to http://www.ready.illinois.gov/.

Slight risk still remains

Temperatures this morning have quickly risen into the lower 80s as of the 11am hour thanks to the sunshine we had earlier this morning.  While we'll continue with the sunshine through the early afternoon, you may have noticed that our clouds deck has begun to thicken some.  This is because of a storm complex currently moving out of Missouri and into southern Illinois.

A very interesting and complicated forecast pattern has come about for this weekend and it starts with the storm potential for this evening.  Looking at the surface analysis this morning and there is pretty much a stationary boundary that extends across northern Illinois, northwest into an area of low pressure across the northern Plains.  Another low sits near the Oklahoma and Kansas border with the main warm front extending across the southern states.  In between these two is where we're going to be watching for storm development later this afternoon as any outflow boundaries leftover from the cluster of storms will help to ignite storms.

Even though we have a fairly stationary boundary over northern Illinois there really isn't much of a triggering mechanism aloft for storms to form, but that will have to be watched as we go through the afternoon.  For now, I believe the majority of the day will remain dry.  Any development to our southwest will likely move northeast by this evening into the lower Great Lakes and if another storm cluster develops, heavy rain would remain the main threat.  As we go throughout the afternoon, we'll continue to watch and track storm development and continue to provide updates here.  Stay Tuned!

Slight Risk of Severe Storms on Friday

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, OK has issued a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening from eastern South Dakota southeastward into much of Kentucky. The Stateline area is included in this risk area with the possibility of 1"+ hail, winds in excess of 60 mph, and heavy rainfall. A warm front lifting into central Illinois by late afternoon combined with an upper-level disturbance moving across the area from the west will trigger these storms. It appears that the storms will start to develop after about 5pm. So if you have plans to be outdoors on Friday evening, check with the FirstWarn weather team to get the latest information on the storm threat.

Stormy, wet pattern to continue this weekend

A very active and summer-like pattern will begin to take shape this weekend as the building heat in the south expands northward.  An upper level low spinning through the lower Great Lakes this morning brought a few showers overnight and may be enough to get another shower or two later this afternoon. 

A stalled front will stretch through central Illinois tomorrow and Saturday and will be the focus for thunderstorms through this weekend.  As it begins to lift through Illinois Friday the storm chance will increase through the afternoon, mainly along and south of the front.  It will continue to lift north Saturday and pretty much sit right over top us Sunday.  While the weekend won't be a complete washout heavy rainfall will be possible as some locations through northern Illinois could receive upwards of two inches by Sunday night.  Rain totals will highly depend on exactly where the boundary sits and if any storms develop overnight as these can be very efficient rain producers.

Meanwhile the heat will continue in the south where the 90s, and even triple digit readings, don't look to break anytime soon.  This does raise some concerns heading into the summer months because we are seeing this heat so early in the season, some worry that the heat and drought will last into July and August - typically when it's the hottest.

The 'Fabric of our lives' may get a little more expensive this year

Especially if the drought stricken south doesn't see any rainfall:

Drought has cotton crop in shambles

Tue, 2011-06-14 22:39
Vic Schoonover, NTOK Cotton

Drought combined with continuous hot winds has made the 2011 cotton crop a shambles in the North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas area of the Southern Plains.  Dick Cooper, who works for the Plains Cotton Cooperative Association, estimates Kansas farmers planted 70,000 acres of cotton, up from 53,000 last year and 12,000 in northern Oklahoma, up from 8,500 in 2010.  “As in the past, the area west of Pratt, Kansas, and all of southwest Kansas is irrigated and to the east is mostly dryland,” Cooper said. “Planting is complete and most of our crop is up to a good stand. There are pockets where moisture was not sufficient to germinate seed, but in general, the crop is off to a good start. Most of the irrigated crop in the southwest is at the three-leaf stage and is making rapid progress with the 100-degree heat we are having. The dryland areas in the eastern areas will need timely rains to achieve average yields as subsoil moisture remains limited,” he said. “Moisture is non-existent in the southwest except for irrigation. We will have some dryland cotton this year.”

Mike Berry, manager of the Cotton Growers Cooperative gin in Altus, Okla., said most cotton growers have used up the six inches of water allotted to them this year. “Some rain fell north of Altus last week, a little in the Blair region. Before we used the six inches allotted, Lake Altus was about half full at 47,000 acre feet. After the six inches was used up, there is only 30,000 acre feet of water left in the lake. There will have to be a lot of rainfall in the watershed north of the lake to help out this year."

Jeannie Hileman, manager of the Farmers Cooperative gin at Carnegie, Okla., said cotton farmers in that part of Caddo County have received some badly-needed rain "enough to allow us to hold on a little longer."  "Our cotton growers here have planted 25,000 acres, double the acreage last year," she said. "About half of the late-harvested irrigated wheat around here has been planted to cotton."

Craig Bolton, manager of the Tri-County Gin east of Chattanooga, Okla., estimated some 20,000 acres of cotton have been planted in the area. "Farmers are still planting; about 20 percent of it is up. We received some rain last week, but it was scattered around the area. Next week will tell the story on how well the crop will do."

Rodney Sawatsky, manager of the Midwest Farmers, Inc., gin at Clinton, says a lot of cotton has been planted in the region with some of it growing well and some of it in trouble. "We have gotten some rain, but it has been very scattered," he said. "Farmers are still planting cotton. We just have to wait to see if any more rain will come our way soon."

Jamie Snider, manager of the Harmon County Cooperative gin at Hollis, says at least 15,000 acres of cotton have been planted there. "A lot of our cotton has been planted with center pivot irrigation,” he said. “Farmers here are worried about how strong their wells will stay without any rainfall to help water the cotton. Some of them may have to recharge their wells to keep enough water flowing to water the cotton."

David Lingle, manager of the Tillman Producers Cooperative gin south of Frederick, said farmers are still planting cotton. "Farmers have had real difficulty getting a stand of cotton, even in the irrigated fields," he said. "Hot winds have wilted the young plants. Farmers with pivot irrigation started watering back in March to get enough subsoil moisture to get the crop going. But the wind, blowing continuously at 40 miles per hour, has sucked surface moisture away from the young cotton. The hot wind won't let the cotton grow enough to let the tap root get down to the subsoil moisture."



TALKIN' COTTON is produced by NTOK Cotton, a cotton industry partnership which supports and encourages increased cotton production in the Rolling Plains of North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. For more information on the cotton scene, see ntokcotton.org and okiecotton.org. For comments or questions about Talkin' Cotton, contact buatersbarn1@yahoo.com.

Sunspots Declining

According to the American Astronomical Society, sunspots are making fewer appearances than expected these days. This -- along with weaker magnetic activity near the sun's poles -- could be a sign that a solar minimum is on the way. The sun normally goes through an 11-year cycle of increased and decreased activity. At this time, the sun is heading towards the maximum of activity in this cycle. But sun spots have not been increasing at their normal rate. This could have a cooling effect on the earth's climate in the long run. See full article here.

Storms Moving Through

As many residents of western and central Winnebago county have probably heard (via thunder) over the past half-hour or so, storms have been developing over the area. There are no watches or warnings in-effect right now for these storms, nor do I anticipate any to be issued. However, these storms are producing heavy rain and are moving slowly. Doppler radar estimates that upwards of 1" of rain has already fallen near the town of Winnebago. Therefore, travellers should watch out for ponding on the roadways as this area of heavy rain slowly moves through the north side of Rockford into Rockton, Rochelle, Machesney Park, and northward towards Wisconsin.

Wednesday Morning Weather Update

Update 8:00am: A dry slot (dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere) has moved into western Illinois this morning basically helping to cut off our showers.  However, there have been a few showers/storms that have developed within that dry-slot near the Quad Cities.  This is a result of a vort max, or upper level disturbance, rotating around the main upper level low now moving into southwest Minnesota.  The cooler air associated with the low along with its lift is what's helping to ignite these storms.  As this vort rotates through later today I wouldn't be surprised if more showers/storms develop this afternoon.  While nothing severe would be expected the cooler air above may allow for some smaller hail to form.

Update 6:00am: Rain showers will continue to move north and east this morning as the low level jet continues to weaken shortly after sunrise and a dry-slot moves into western Illinois.  The clouds will remain as the main area of low pressure slides just to the south of us later this afternoon.  This may be enough to get a couple more showers/storms later this afternoon.

Rain Moving in Overnight.

High pressure over Lake Huron is slowly giving up it's grip on the Stateline. Our region has had some pleasant weather associated with this high, but as a system moves out of the central plains  it's influence will be felt across the area overnight into Wednesday and Wednesday night beginning with the threat of some showers this later tonight, and possibly some thunderstorms.  Several areas of thunderstorms have broken out as of 9:30 pm cdt over the plains, and parts of the midwest stretching from the Dakota's and Minnesota across Iowa and Missouri into Nebraska.  There have been some severe thunderstorms already reported over Iowa and northern Missouri.  No severe weather is espected to develop into northern Illinois tonight or Wednesdsay.  Low pressure near Kansas City will move to near Quincy, Illinois by sunrise on Wednesday. A warm front stretches southeast out of the low across the southern tip of Illinois. Gulf moisture running up and over the front to our south will provide moisture to develop the precipitation into northern Illinois.  Wednesday will start off rainy  with some embedded thundershowers. The showers will taper down a bit during the afternoon, but there will still be a good chance of more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night that could linger into Thursday.  After a dry day on Friday, a warm front will approach on Saturday, generating some showers and thunderstorms, and warming temperatures to around 80 degrees.  The warm front will sweep off to the north on Sunday moving tropical air into the area with heat and humidity leaving the Stateline near 90 degrees on Sunday afternoon.  On Monday the high should be in the low 90's.

Storms that form overnight can often be efficient rain producers

Thunderstorms that develop during the late-afternoon sometimes can form into a cluster of storms that can produce significant rainfall over a large area.  We had a couple move through during the early morning hours late last week and southern Iowa sure did get its healthy dose of rainfall within the past 24 hours.  So, just how do these storms form?

Storms basically need three ingredients to develop and thrive: warm temperatures, moisture and lift.  The warmth comes from the south, the moisture comes from the gulf and the lift comes from either a front or some type of mid-level disturbance.  Often times the storms will develop as individual cells during the late afternoon/evening as either a front/disturbance comes through and we're often at the peak heating time of day.  Now once the sun begins to go down we begin to lose our heat source.  So how can these storms still produce severe weather and heavy rain.  A lot of times it's the low level jet and/or the upper level disturbance. 

The low level jet is an area of stronger winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere (usually about 5000ft above) that forms overnight.  In other words, it's a nocturnal jet.  This is what helps to supply the moisture needed to keep the storms going.  Also, you'll sometimes find that either a 'front' in the mid-levels of the atmosphere or an upper level disturbance will provide the lift needed.  As long as there is a continuous supply of moisture, the storms will continue to develop.  Unlike our main jet stream, the low level jet usually stays in one location overnight and will weaken shortly after sunrise.  Because the storms typically don't have the forward momentum like they would if there were to form during the day, they can form over the same location which then leads to flooding concerns. 

Tonight I anticipate storms to develop to our west, but because the main system will have shifted eastward we hold a better chance of picking up on rainfall overnight.

Rain avoids Stateline this morning; Rain likely overnight

From yesterday's rain to what fell this morning, heavy rainfall totals have been reported across far southeast Iowa.  24 hour radar rainfall estimates show close to 10", or more, has fallen in those areas prompting some flash flooding concerns.  Now that rain continues to fizzle out and move southwest of the area this morning as it moves away from the low level jet and into a drier air mass.  Our east, dry wind really helped prevent those showers from making it this far east.

We'll likely keep the clouds around through the remainder of the day with some sunshine expected later this afternoon.  Storms will fire late this afternoon and into the evening as an upper level disturbance kicks out of the Rockies and moves into the Midwest.  This will potentially cause severe weather over sections of Iowa and Missouri later today.  The low level jet will develop again tonight but possibly a little further north and east as an area of low pressure and warm front move closer.  While I don't think we'll see the 10" of rainfall like parts of Iowa saw, we could get over an inch with what falls overnight and throughout the day Wednesday.

Slow Moving Systems

High pressure is sitting over the western end of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening while low pressure is over Kansas with a warm front stretching into southwestern Missouri. A dying thunderstorm complex is moving across southern Illinois, while a new one develops over southeast Iowa and northeast Missouri, but it is being directed toward the southeast by the northwest flow across the area.  All the Stateline will get from this system will be some high thin blow off tops that have thinned out into cirrus clouds that will allow filtered starshine for the ovenight hours. The high pressure to our north will dominate weather through the overnight hours with high cirrus clouds and cool temperatures. The high pressure will slowly begin to ease off to the east as a Greenland block in the mid and upper atmosphere starts to weaken. That will allow the weather system over the southern and central plains to slowly move toward the east and northeast. So, it will become mostly cloudy on Tuesday with a slight chance of showers in the morning. By afternoon there may be enough instability for a thunderstorm or two to develop. On Tuesday night and Wednesday the system will advance into Illinois giving the area a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wind direction does make a difference

What a difference a week makes.  This time last Monday temperatures were well on their way to the middle 90s and today we'll be a good 20° cooler.  So, just what exactly happened?  Last week a very strong ridge of high pressure built across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and East coast.  The gusty southwest wind allowed the heat, built up from the very dry conditions across Texas, to extend all the way up into Canada.  A lot of times you can get this kind of heat when the wind direction is from the south/southwest throughout the atmosphere.  This allowed temperatures to reach near record levels across the Stateline Monday through Wednesday.  The pattern was finally able to break when a fairly significant cold front pushed through not only dropping our temperatures but also bringing severe weather across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  Now we haven't seen that ridge build back north as it has remained settled across the southern states for some time. 

Bringing it back to the present and cool, Canadian high pressure has changed our winds at the surface more so from the east and northeast.  Not only does the high help pull down cooler air but it's also modified some because of the cooler Lake Michigan water temperatures.  Temperatures across Lake Michigan remain in the middle 40s and only the low 50s along the shores.  That's still cool.  So as that air moves over the cooler lake surface it does become modified some.  That's why typically you'll see places along the lake shore cooler than locations further west.  Temperatures today will remain in the 60s along the lake but be able to rise into the middle 70s here.  Even though we will have that easterly breeze, mid-June sunshine is able to help warm us.

Storms to the west will remain there today

High pressure will keep its grip this afternoon as showers and storms remain out west across Iowa and Missouri.  One storm complex formed across the northern Plains overnight while another developed in north-central Missouri early this morning.  The storms were fed by the low level jet, higher dew points and high temperatures thanks to a southerly wind.  The second graphic on the left shows the wind direction, temperatures and dew points at 850mb, roughly 5,000 ft above.  The tightly spaced green lines indicate where there is moisture convergence occurring.  It's important to look at this because it gives us a good indication of where storms will typically move.

For us, our wind direction remains from the east/northeast and will continue to feed dry air across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  The storms will slide to the southwest of the immediate Stateline and all we should see are just a few clouds later this afternoon.

Great Start to the Week

High pressure over western Upper Michigan will slip into Wisconsin overnight, and have primary control of our weather through Monday. It will be mostly cloudy and cool overnight with a chance of a few sprinkles as a disturbance rides up over the surface high pressure. Precipitation should not amount to much because of high pressure to our north feeding dry air into northern Illinois at ground level. Monday will be a very pleasant day with a fair amount of sunshine, and afternoon temperatures.  Our next chance of organized precipitation will be on Monday night with a system pushing toward the east out of the plains. The chance is only slight on Monday night increasing a little by Tuesday afternoon, but will become more likely Tuesday night and Wednesday as the system over the plains moves into the midwest tapping Gulf moisture.

Cool Overnight With a Chance of Fog Late... Nice Sunday

High pressure over Minnesota will move to Wisconsin overnight clearing skies across the area, but some areas fog could form as temperatures cool down into low 50's. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures on Sunday will only reach the low 70's. Monday will be mostly sunny, too, but a little warmer with highs in the middle 70's. The next chance of rain will be on Monday night. Then a series of systems and disturbances will cause showers and thunderstorms to develop from time to time for the rest of the week.

Scattered Showers Tonight... Nice Cool Weekend on the Way

A surface low is over Indiana tonight with a cool front trailing to the southwest across central Illinois, Missouri, into southeast Kansas becoming stationary across Oklahoma through the southern part of the Texas panhandle.  Severe thunderstorms are scattered just to the south of the front along it's entire length.  A mid level disturbance will be moving across northern Illinois and off to the east overnight.  Showers associated with the disturbance will dot the Stateline through the late night hours.  By morning the showers will deprt off to the east, and patchy fog is possible, mainly to the west of Rockford.  High pressure will take control of  Stateline weather on Saturday bringing the area a cool north to northwest breeze around 10 mph.  Skies will be partly cloudy on Saturday with an afternoon high near 70 degrees.  With the Canadian high centered over Minnesota moving to Wisconsin on saturday night and Sunday we can expect mostly clear and cool conditions with an overnight low early Sunday morning in the upper 40's.  Abundant June sunshine on Sunday will allow for a good recovery in the temperature by Sunday afternoon to near 74 degrees.  By early Monday morning the high will slip a  littlle eastward to northern Lake Michigan.  That will keep skies mostly sunny, and with a light southeasterly wind developing there will be a slight upward trend in afternoon temps to around 77 degrees.  The next preciptiation producer to effect the Stateline will begin it's approach from the southwest on Monday night, and may produce some widely scattered showers and thunderstorm overnight.  High pressure will shift to the lower Great Lakes by Tuesday morning allowing the plains weather system to move intgo the Statline later Wednesday and Wednesday night with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms that will continue through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be back to near season averages for the rest of the week.

First named hurricane in the Pacific

Things are starting to heat up out west in the Pacific as the first named hurricane has formed.  Hurricane Adrian is a Category four hurricane with sustained winds of 135 mph and moving very slowly to the west/northwest around 9 mph.  Adrian will likely decrease in intensity over the next couple of days and won't have a direct impact on land,  but large swells generated by Adrian will continue to affect southwestern Mexico for today and at least into the early weekend.

Moving over into the Atlantic and there are a couple of disturbances but no major development is expected.  Showers and storms will continue to have an impact on eastern Cuba and the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center has it at a 10% chance of developing into a named tropical cyclone as the upper level winds are not too favorable for any further development.