Monday, June 27, 2011

Still a Chance of Storms This Afternoon

4:15pm Update:
Significant cloud cover late this morning and this afternoon have kept the Stateline rather stable and un-primed for severe thunderstorm development. Severe storms appear more likely in Wisconsin where better wind shear and mid-level energy reside. Similarly, the atmosphere looks more supportive of severe weather in central and southern Illinois than it does here. An isolated shower or storm is still possible through about 8pm, then a cold front will come through bringing an end to our storm chances.

A cold front stretches southeast from a low over central Minnesota late this morning across eastern Iowa, and then swings back to the southwest just north of Kansas City. A warm front lines up from north of La Cross, Wisconsin. to near Madison to just south of Milwaukee.  There are thunderstorms southeast of St. Louis, and north of Duluth.  There isn't any activity to our west... ahead of the cold front as of 10:40 am CDT.  The clouds are thinning, and the storm prediction center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.  Because of the thunderstorm complexes that rolled through the mid west early this morning, the atmosphere has stabilized for the time being, but multiple outflow boundaries were laid down by the passing storms that will serve as focal points for convection though the afternoon as the atmosphere heats up and destabilizes.  The exact firing places where the storms will fire are difficult to pinpoint at this time. Just keep in mind that severe thunderstorms could develop quickly this afternoon.  Whatever storms that do develop will end early this evening with the passage of the cold front. Skies will become mostly clear tonight with a fairly brisk northwest breeze.  Tuesday will be a fabulous day with blue skies, lower humidity, and a comfortable afternoon high temperature around 80 degrees.  It will warm up a few degrees on Wednesday, and it will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will heat up into the upper 80's on Thursday, and be down right hot and humid on Friday with a high around 93 degrees.

2 comments:

  1. Expecting any watches to be issued for Rockford?

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  2. It's possible, but looking somewhat doubtful to me. We've had a fair amount of cloud cover so far today, which has kept things more stable.

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