Friday, June 17, 2011

Slight risk still remains

Temperatures this morning have quickly risen into the lower 80s as of the 11am hour thanks to the sunshine we had earlier this morning.  While we'll continue with the sunshine through the early afternoon, you may have noticed that our clouds deck has begun to thicken some.  This is because of a storm complex currently moving out of Missouri and into southern Illinois.

A very interesting and complicated forecast pattern has come about for this weekend and it starts with the storm potential for this evening.  Looking at the surface analysis this morning and there is pretty much a stationary boundary that extends across northern Illinois, northwest into an area of low pressure across the northern Plains.  Another low sits near the Oklahoma and Kansas border with the main warm front extending across the southern states.  In between these two is where we're going to be watching for storm development later this afternoon as any outflow boundaries leftover from the cluster of storms will help to ignite storms.

Even though we have a fairly stationary boundary over northern Illinois there really isn't much of a triggering mechanism aloft for storms to form, but that will have to be watched as we go through the afternoon.  For now, I believe the majority of the day will remain dry.  Any development to our southwest will likely move northeast by this evening into the lower Great Lakes and if another storm cluster develops, heavy rain would remain the main threat.  As we go throughout the afternoon, we'll continue to watch and track storm development and continue to provide updates here.  Stay Tuned!

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