Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Fourth of July Forecast

All eyes will be focused on the forecast for this weekend as we get ready to celebrate the Fourth of July.  And while it won't be a complete washout, a weak cool front that will pass through late Friday will become 'hung up' somewhere across the Great Lakes this weekend keeping isolated storm chances going through next Tuesday.

We've been talking about the heat expected by the end of this week for the past several days as a big ridge of high pressure, currently in the west, begins to move over the center of the U.S.  This will cause temperatures to soar into the middle 90s with dew points in the low 70s during Friday afternoon.  A pretty significant area of low pressure moving down the west coast will help to flatten the ridge some heading into this weekend.  As the jet stream flattens a weak cool front will slide through but because of the zonal (west to east) flow behind it, it's not going to have much push to move it too far to our south.  It also appears that high pressure in the mid-levels will remain in the southeast helping to block the front.  Southerly winds south of the jet stream will continue to pull gulf moisture northward and if we remain on the southern edge of the jet stream, it could mean a fairly hot and sticky weekend.  It would also mean the storm track would probably remain to the north.  I wouldn't cancel any plans you have just yet because right now the storm chances look isolated and I do anticipate most of this holiday weekend to remain dry.  Of course as the fourth gets closer, we'll be able to time out the rain chances for you.

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