Cold but dry weekend in the Stateline while winter storm churns to South

 Despite some afternoon sunshine, temperatures struggled to reach the mid-20s, only topping out at 25° for Rockford's high temperature. Overnight, those numbers will remain cold, reaching an overnight low around 8°.

Temperatures will drop through the teens into the single digits, but wind chills will make it feel colder, down below zero for much of the night. While temperatures will return to the low 20s tomorrow afternoon, wind chills will only reach the upper single digits and low teens.

The Stateline will likely remain dry throughout the entire weekend, but a major winter storm is taking aim at the Ohio River Valley Sunday into Monday. Snowfall could start Sunday morning across Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, and Kentucky. South of the heaviest snowfall axis, sleet and freezing rain may be possible.

Winter storm headlines stretch from Kansas to Virgina, where the highest confidence of winter weather impacts lie. Generally speaking, anywhere underneath a winter storm watch or warning can expect around 6" of snowfall and/or impacts from ice accumulation (like in Kentucky). 

There will be a sharp gradient on the Northern edge of the snowfall, with lots of dry air to the North eating into totals. Barring a major shift Northward, only areas near I-80 have a chance for accumulating snowfall aside from any lake-effect closer to Chicago.

Temperatures will remain chilly through the weekend and beyond, with highs below freezing and below average all through the week ahead. Monday and Tuesday will be the "warmest" with highs in the mid to upper 20s, but another push of colder air arrives for the second half of the week. Overnight lows during this time will be in the teens to single digits.

Bitter cold to linger into the first weekend of 2025

Cloud cover has hanged tight and with it has come a few pockets of flurries. This shouldn't have any implications on the morning commute. 

The bigger headline if you plan to step out the door this morning is the bitter cold. A brisk northwesterly wind has left temperatures in the upper teens, and wind chills in the single digits. Dress in warm layers before leaving this morning.   

The rest of Friday will be just as cold. Despite the sun making an appearance in a mixed fashion, today's cold northwesterly wind will severely restrict our ability to warm up, leaving afternoon highs in the low 20s. Wind chill values will likely remain in the single digits for most, if not all of the day.

 

Mostly clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits. Saturday features similar conditions to today, cold with temperatures peaking in the low 20s under partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover will increase once again Saturday night ahead of a potent storm system that will likely bring significant impacts to parts of the Midwest.

 

For those in the Stateline that want snow, confidence continues to increase that we’ll be missing out on the more significant snowfall. It seems that will occur well south of Rockford in central and southern Illinois. On Thursday, the National Weather Service placed areas from central Kansas to southwest Ohio under a Winter Storm Watch. 

This includes metros such as Topeka, Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Louisville. It's in these areas where forecast models plant snowfall totals in excess of 6″. If any accumulations were to occur locally, they would be minor and generally confined to those along and south of Interstate 88. 

Monday will end up being the warmest day of first week of January as another batch of Arctic air cools highs into the teens by Wednesday. Long story shorty, winter is in FULL FORCE!

Winter storm setting sights on Midwest Sunday into Monday

 An expansive weather system and likely winter storm is set to move across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley late this weekend into Monday, which could bring some impressive snow totals for some. But take any snow maps with a big grain of salt, as the disturbance producing this weather system is still over 2,000 miles away as of Thursday evening.

As the wave moves onshore and through the Central U.S. over the weekend, we will get a better grasp as to the exact trajectory of the system and associated components that will determine where the heaviest snow will fall.

As of now, this system looks to produce the heaviest snowfall across Missouri into Central Illinois and Indiana. South of that snow axis, significant icing may occur as well. The exact locations of the precipitation types and rates will depend on the track of the weather system, so any recent snow maps and forecast models are subject to a lot of change based on small wobbles in the track. Northern Illinois, including Rockford, will likely miss out on the worst of the system but could see some minor accumulating snow Sunday into Monday morning.

Winter storm watches have been issued Thursday well ahead of the storm's arrival, given the possibility of higher impacts. The watch officially calls for six or more inches of accumulating snowfall, but the forecast will become refined as better data arrives in the coming days. Stay tuned to your local forecast for updates!

Thursday afternoon weather update

Light snow continues to fall across northern Illinois with a few heavier busts of snow occurring south of Rockford. Most of the high accumulating snow has taken place outside of the viewing area, with areas south of Rockford starting to see some light snow accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.

 This has dropped visibility down to just a couple miles in some of our southern counties. The snow will come to an end from west to east later this evening, after 7pm/8pm. Even though the snow has remained light, temperatures in the 20s may help create some slick conditions through the evening. Especially on elevated and untreated surfaces.

Skies will briefly turn partly cloudy late this evening but incoming cold air from the northwest will cause clouds to fill back in. A few flurries remain possible through the night as temperatures fall into the mid-teens. Wind chills early Friday could briefly dip below zero before remaining in the single digits and low teens through the afternoon. 

Snow chances return Thursday, bitter cold to follow

All signs continue to point towards us seeing a downright cold weather pattern for the first weekend and first week of January, with a few opportunities for snow being thrown into the mix.  

The first comes later today as a quick-moving clipper-like system dives into the Midwest. The greatest chance for any snowfall accumulation will be south of Rockford, more specially along and south of I-88 where 1"-2" of snow could fall. If you are located north of the I-88, a trace to .2". 

With clouds and snow chances dominating a majority of the headlines today, temperatures will top out near early-January standards, close to 30°. 

From there, we can expect some clearing to occur into Friday, allowing us to get in on some much-needed sunshine. But with the good news comes not so good news. Friday is going to be downright cold as colder air wraps in behind today's clipper-like system. This will leave highs in the low 20s. Wind chills to start off the day will be in the single-digits, remaining in the single-digits Friday afternoon. Saturday features more of the same with afternoon highs barely making it out of the teens. Overnight lows during this stretch, upper single-digits and lower teens. 

Switching back to snow chances, we've been keeping an eye on the potential for potent winter storm to target the lower 48s midsection. Here's what we know as of this morning. Forecast models show this low originating over the TX/OK Panhandles, sliding well south of the area Sunday evening.

In doing so, this will bring the opportunity for snow showers across northern Illinois Sunday afternoon into Monday, though it doesn't look to be as impactful as what our friends across central and southern Illinois will encounter. Still, the storm system still has yet to make landfall along the west coast. As we discussed yesterday, we will have a better understanding of the storm's characteristics and forecast models will have a better sense of the overall track once it does. 

For the time being, continued to keep tabs on the First Warn Weather App as well as our Facebook pages for  further updates. The one component of the forecast that hasn't changed is the bitter cold that sticks around following said storm system. Afternoon highs climb back into the upper 20s Monday, then fall back into the low 20s Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

New Year's Day afternoon weather update

 

Welcome to 2025! The start of the new year had quite the chill to it, despite temperatures being close to where they should be for the beginning of January. The official high for January 1st, 2025, will go down in the record books as 31 degrees. However, that was reached just after 3:30am. We spent most of the afternoon in the upper 20s, with wind chills in the low to mid-teens.

The sun did manage to make an appearance throughout the day, leading to a good amount of sunshine mid to late afternoon. But cloud cover moving back in from the west will leave skies mostly cloudy for a time through the evening. There have even been a few flurries that have developed and will persist into the evening.

The brisk northwest wind we've also experienced will soon ease, which will help some with the wind chill overnight. Wind chills will stay in the low teens through the start of Thursday. Overnight lows will fall on either side of 20 degrees.

A quick moving storm system will develop out west tonight, shifting east through the Midwest during the day Thursday. Light snow developing out ahead of the low will spread across Illinois,

reaching northern Illinois during the afternoon. The bulk of accumulating snow will be centered around central and southern Iowa, as well as west-central and central Illinois where a couple inches could fall. North of there, lighter snow amounts are expected with light snow extending up through Highway 20. Temperatures in the 20s during that time may help aid in what does come to down to stick, causing some slick conditions through the afternoon and early evening - especially on untreated surfaces. Highs on Thursday will into the upper 20s.

Strong Arctic high pressure will move in behind the departing low Friday, giving way to plenty of chills heading into the weekend. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will only warm into the low 20s, with overnight lows in the single digits.   

Cold start to Rockford's new year, few snow chances mixed in

Happy New Year! Weather-wise, the main headline is the incoming cold, though there will be a few snow chances thrown into the mix. 

The first being this morning. Behind yesterday's low pressure system, a few flurries will be possible before midday. Travel impacts are unlikely. 

The rest of New Year's Day will be mostly cloudy and breezy, with northwest winds gusting to near 25 mph at times. This will limit afternoon highs to the upper 20s. A slightly higher snow chances arrives Thursday, more so during the afternoon and evening as a weak disturbances tracks in from the northwest. Snowfall totals for most locales south of the Illinois/Wisconsin border will be up to an inch. The morning commute won't be impacted, though keep an eye out for slick spots Thursday evening.

Sunshine returns Friday, though temperatures take a dive southward. Afternoon highs will be limited to the low 20s, with overnight lows flirting with the upper single-digits. Same for Saturday, with slight improvements arriving Sunday. 

 

 

 

From there, we continue to monitor the potential for snow early next week. Right now, the system still has a ways to go before making a U.S landfall, spinning just south of the Aleutian Islands. Once it does impact the west coast, we will have better measurements of the storm itself, giving us a better idea on the track and where the biggest impacts will occur.

However, since we are 4-5 days out from the actual event, which is typically when we can pick out what is more like to happen and what is not. Guidance have been consistent with the track of the low as it zips across the Midwest, keeping the more impactful snowfall south of I-80. Now, there is still time for the forecast to change, so keep an eye on the First Warn Weather App for further updates.