A warm front is still stalled in southeast Iowa and extends into central portions of the state. As the front lifts north through the area later today more storms will be possible, however this first round of rain is going to really limit storm activity for the afternoon. The more likely scenerio that will play out is that the rain and embedded storms will linger into the midday, along with the cloudy skies. Through the midafternoon we will notice a break in the rain with some dry time, as the warm front slowly lifts northward. The greatest potential for storm development will be along the warm front, as this is the area with the greatest lift and available moisture. The rain from this morning into the afternoon has now limited the potential for storms this afternoon, because its using up some of the available energy and is not allowing for instability to build, which is what you need for storm development.
Current forecast stands that we will see more rain and storms develop this evening as the warm front crosses over the area, and the low level jet increases. If thunderstorms do develop this evening the greateast threat would be for hail as well as stronger winds and heavy rainfall. This doesn't look to affect the entire Stateline, but mainly from a line extending from Monroe, Wisconsin through Rockford and then southeast into Dekalb. Along and east of that line will have a higher probability to see heavier rain and storms tonight.The warm front is forecast to then lift completely north of the Stateline on Friday, allowing for a mostly dry day, but also a hot and humid one.
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