Wednesday Severe Threat: Update

As Chief Meteorologist Candice King mentioned in the previous post, a threat for severe weather is high Wednesday.

Not much has changed in the set up for Wednesday but I wanted to outline the timing of the storms and what you can expect as of now.

First off, the Storm Prediction Center has outline most of the Stateline in a Moderate risk for severe weather, and our western counties under an enhanced risk.
An Enhanced Risk is defined by the SPC as "numerous severe storms possible."
While a Moderate Risk is defined as "widespread severe storms likely"
However, there are still a lot of ingredients that need to come together first, for us to see storms. Also, the small scale details are not well defined yet, and that will have an impact on locations and the magnitude of storms.

First off: Morning storms
Storms will begin to develop overnight in Iowa and southern Minnesota and will track along the warm front into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. So about 3/4am in the morning storms will move in from the west and head eastward.
These storms have the potential to turn severe but the higher threat for severe storms arrives in the evening. For the morning, the highest threats we are watching for is very heavy and torrential rainfall and large hail. Damaging winds is a secondary concern, but definitely possible to see strong damaging winds. There will also be a localized flash flood threat in the morning hours with a lot of moisture available in the atmosphere. As the forecast sits now, storms look to exit the area around 10-11am.

Second round of storms: Late afternoon and evening
The afternoon storms have a higher potential to turn severe, however storms have to form first, and that will depend on what happens in the morning. If the am morning storms linger longer into the afternoon then the atmosphere won't have time to 'recharge' or destabilized again. Essentially, the morning storms could zap the energy for the afternoon.

If storms do form then again, they will have a high threat to turn severe. Again, the highest threats will be heavy torrential rainfall, strong damaging winds, and hail. Tornadoes are a possibility in the initial stages of storm development.

Watch for storms to redevelop from 3pm-9pm as storms then head to the east into the Chicago area.

As we know, forecasts can be shifted or changed so make sure to check back for more updates as we get a little closer . Make sure your weather radios are ready to go and you have a severe weather plan in place in case you do see severe weather.