Sunday, October 27, 2024

Sunday morning weather update

 The past few days along the state line have begun to feel a bit more fall like even with temperatures still being above average. After this weekend's quick cooler pattern, temperatures look to again shoot back up into the 70's and even 80's by the beginning of next week!

After today, surface high pressure will begin to slide east allowing low pressure to the west to begin to slide east. Accompanying that low pressure will be a strong upper-level shift in the jet stream pattern allowing winds to shift more southerly through the night Sunday night into Monday morning. This will bump temperatures up slightly Monday, but the big flash of warmer temperatures will begin to move in Tuesday into Wednesday.

This warmup will be fueled by a process known as warm air advection which to put simply is the transport of warmer and often moist air. This process often happens ahead of low pressure as different levels of pressure are stacked up together allowing quicker wind speeds and with these winds ahead of low pressure being southerly, this transports warm and moist air from the south.

This warm air advection will begin early Monday morning although low pressure won't begin to slide in until Tuesday whereby that point advection, and temperatures will be at their highest. Accompanying that as often with low pressure will be some stronger wind gusts through that time.

Advection as explained is fueled by strong wind gusts so accompanying our warmer advection will be strong southerly wind. Winds will increase up until Tuesday with sustained winds staying over 15 mph through the next three days with gusts peaking at least 30 mph. Although windy, these southerly winds won't feel as bad as they'll be transporting warmer air with a warmer feel to those gusts.

This pattern will stick around until Wednesday when warm air advection transports pretty significant moisture ahead of a cold front that will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Along that cold front with the available moisture, a line of at least showers and possibly thunderstorms look to develop bringing another chance for some measurable rainfall through the night. After that cold front temperatures will drop back into the 50's once again until yet another shift in upper-level winds bring us some southerly flow once again bumping up temperatures by next weekend. 


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