Sunday, January 6, 2013

A Warming Trend Through Friday...Rain Thursday Nite

A sprawling area of high pressure will move from the southern plains late this afternoon to southern Missouri early tonight, and on eastward to Kentucky by daybreak on Monday. It is the dominant weather feature influencing the weather for northern Illinois, so skies will be clear overnight, and it will be chilly from what we are used to, but actually very close to seasonal averages with a low temperature in the low teens. The wind will be light and variable this evening through early tonight. It will be sunny on Monday with the high pressure continuing on eastward reaching West Virginia by noon time. A tight pressure gradient will develop between the high and a strong area of low pressure just north of Minnesota in south central Canada, so it will get windy. The winds will be southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph by noon with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 30's. The circulation around the backside to high pressure over Virginia on Monday night will prevent the temperature from falling any lower than 25 degrees.  The average low this time of year is 14 degrees.  On Tuesday the high will be off the middle Atlantic coast.  Southwesterly winds will continue across the Stateline pushing the afternoon high close to 40 degrees under mostly sunny skies.  It will continue mostly sunny of Wednesday with that persistent southerly breeze pushing the temperature into the low 40's. One must keep in mind that the average high temperatures this time of year are in the upper 20's.  The pattern will start to change on Wednesday, though, with a closed low moving into Texas.  The subtropical jet stream will develop a kink in itself carrying the Texas low toward the northeast.  The Gulf of Mexico will open up allowing copious amounts of moisture to be available for this system.  Heavy rains will develop east of the system from the coastal areas of east Texas into the lower Mississippi valley.  Generous rains will develop on toward the northeast as the low moves to Oklahoma by early Thursday.  It will be very mild in the Stateline on Thursday under the continuing southerly wind flow, and it will become mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing as far north as southern Wisconsin by the afternoon.  Projected high temperatures will  be in the middle 40's, and the low temperature on Thursday night will be near 40 degrees.   Rain will be likely on Thursday night with the low located near Champaign, Illinois by 6 am on Friday. It will be cloudy and mild on Friday with scattered showers, and a high in the upper 40's.  This system will weaken considerably as it moves to near New York City by breakfast time on Saturday.  At the same time a cold front with waves of low pressure along it will push southeast from Minnesota and northwestern Iowa to a low Near Chicago southwest across Illinois, southwest Missouri, northern Oklahoma to a low over northeastern New Mexico.  It will be cooler on Saturday with more scattered showers.  The front will make very little eastward progress on Sunday as the southern plains low zips northeast to a position over central Lake Michigan by 6 am.  The Stateline will be on the cold side of this system, so a combination of rain and snow could begin on Saturday night changing over to all snow on Sunday.  It will be colder on Sunday with a high in the upper 20's.  The weather in the following week look like it will be very cold at this time.

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