Thursday, January 3, 2013

When Models Disagree...

Part of our job as meteorologists is to look at what all the different weather models give us and decide from that information what the forecast is going to look like. Most of the time, there are differences between the models, but they're minor differences. One model might say it will be partly cloudy while another says it will be mostly cloudy. One model might say it will rain in the morning while another says it will rain in the afternoon. And then there's this...

The models agree that a major system is moving through the Stateline next week. The similarities end after that.

The GFS (American Model) has this system moving in on Tuesday and staying to our south. That would equate to highs in the 30s and some sort of rain/snow mix for us.

The European model has this same system moving in on Thursday to our north. This situation would give us rain with highs in the 40s, not to mentions a BIG warm-up into the 40s and 50s in the days before the storm arrives.

Right now, it looks like the GFS had a hiccup. Most of the model runs from this afternoon are siding with the European, and so am I. Enjoy the 7-Day Forecast! -BA

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