Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The Cold Is Coming!

Brace yourself... negative temperatures are a very real possibility heading into next week! As a meteorologist, here's what I'm seeing to back that claim up.

GFS Model: Tuesday Morning 850mb Temps
Here's a look at the 850mb temperature map for Tuesday morning, according to the GFS. The 850mb layer of the atmosphere is about 5,000ft above the surface of the earth and the temps we see up there give us a good indication of what we'll see on the ground. In this case, 850mb temps are around -23° Celcius by Tuesday morning... about -10° Farenheit.

Euro Model: Tuesday Morning 850mb Temps
The highly reliable European model is saying the same thing, with 850mb temps around -21° C by early Tuesday.

Euro Model: Tues. Morning 850mb Temp Anomaly

GFS Model: Tues. Morning 850mb Temp Anomaly

Temperatures like these are a good 14-18° below normal 850mb values, depending on what model run you look at.

So what does all this mean for our actual temperatures? It depends. We have the chance for some snow on Monday. If we don't see any accumulation, there's still a very good chance lows will dip below zero, but only by a few degrees. If we get an inch or two on the ground, that would help lows to cool even more. Either way... it's going to be cold next week! Bundle up! -BA

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