Tuesday, February 5, 2013

A Messy Thursday Forecast?

We're finally getting a break in the snow, but some messier winter weather is going to be possible heading into Thursday in the form of freezing rain.

Futurecast: Thursday Morning
Here's the setup heading into Thursday morning. Most models are suggesting that above freezing temps will move into the upper parts of the atmosphere Wednesday night and stick around through Thursday morning. With below freezing temps expected at the surface, precip should form as rain, but could freeze when hitting the colder ground. Sleet will also be possible.

NAM Model: Critical Thickness for Thursday Morning
It's going to be a close call, though. Here's a look at one of the models, the NAM. This map shows "Critical Thicknesses". Basically, the different colored lines represent the freezing lines of different heights in the atmosphere. Anything north of the line means a better chance for snow. Anything south of the line means a better chance for rain. As you can see, many of those lines are sitting right over us. A tiny shift could mean the difference between freezing rain and sleet or a few inches of snow.

RPM Model: Accumulated Ice
In house models are showing that accumulating ice will be possible Thursday morning, so stay tuned... things might get a little messy later this week. -BA

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